2023 NFL Draft Takes: Top Five OL

These short posts over the course of the week leading up to Thursday night will detail my personal opinions on how the NFL should approach this draft class. I'll try to give some hard-core analysis for some guys, but a lot of this is going to be gut-instinct, armchair-quarterback musings. All correct opinions come directly from me and me alone. All incorrect opinions may be roasted appropriately at a later date.

OL1: Paris Johnson Jr., Ohio State

People have picked him apart, but he's the best, most-refined tackle prospect in this draft with a winning personality. There's a reason why he's rumored to be coveted by the Cardinals at #3 overall, Good size, great mobility, great technique. He's not Penei Sewell, but he can be a franchise tackle (and has a very substantial chance to to actually do it). This OL class is underrated in my opinion, and PJJ is the most valuable commodity it offers.

OL2: Peter Skoronski, Northwestern

He'd be OL1 if I thought he could play tackle, but I think he ultimately is a guard in the NFL due to a lack of length that would be a significant outlier at that position. Regardless, he's a tremendous pass protector that will be a Pro Bowl-level interior OL essentially the moment he steps on the field. That kind of floor makes him someone that should get considerable attention from every team picking in the top-10, even if his projection as a future guard lowers his draft ceiling and floor.

OL3: Broderick Jones, Georgia

More raw than the two above, but he has movement skills out in space that suggest he could be an elite pass-protector as well as being a true weapon blocking defenders at the second level in the run game. I expect him to struggle in his first year, but check back after Year 3. He might be a top-three tackle in the league by then.

OL4: Darnell Wright, Tennessee

His highs are exceptional, and he's got the talent and polish to be a rock-solid tackle. He has a recurrent theme of people bringing up questions about his work ethic, but his on-field performance this past season warrants a first-round pick. He just better not be the Bears' pick at #9. He's not that solid of a prospect.

OL5: John-Michael Schmitz, Minnesota

He's a discount version of Tyler Linderbaum (the GOAT) as the clear #1 center prospect in this draft. He's a mauler in the run game and holds up well in pass protection. Drafting him will land you a guaranteed above-average starter for 10 years, though his position is fairly devalued at this point. An argument could be made that he's so solid that it makes him look less spectacular than he probably should as a prospect. Because of that, I expect his range to go from the end of the first round all the way to the end of the second round despite likely having arguably the second-highest floor on the OL in this draft class (Skoronski possessing the highest).

2023 NFL Draft Takes: Top Five TEs

These short posts over the course of the week leading up to Thursday night will detail my personal opinions on how the NFL should approach this draft class. I'll try to give some hard-core analysis for some guys, but a lot of this is going to be gut-instinct, armchair-quarterback musings. All correct opinions come directly from me and me alone. All incorrect opinions may be roasted appropriately at a later date.

TE1: Dalton Kincaid, Utah

He's the best receiving TE in the class, and that's what the NFL values most in this day and age. Tremendous body control and plenty of upside to be achieved over time (he only started playing football in late high school). In a class full of solid tight ends, Kincaid has the most marketable skill. He's going to be a first-rounder.

TE2: Darnell Washington, Georgia

Some recent rumblings about some medical issues would give me pause here and prevented me from putting him at TE1. Aside from that, he's a monstrous 6'7", 250 pounds with plus-athleticism and a strong penchant for getting involved in the run game as a blocker. He's essentially a smaller offensive tackle that can make plenty of plays in the pass game. He will never have the fluidity as a receiver that Kincaid has, but his upside as an all-purpose TE makes him a player that some team is bound to fall in love with despite relatively meager stats in college. I promise you, his value is found in places that don't show up on the stat sheet, and he has the upside to expand that area of his game once he reaches the league. He can be a focal point of a run-heavy offense, which still has a real place in this league. Likely late Round 1 or Round 2 pick.

TE3: Sam Laporta, Iowa

I've heard/read from a few different sources that Sam Laporta is "every team's second-favorite tight end prospect in this draft", which seems a bit outlandish at first, but actually makes a lot of sense. His movement skills as a route-runner might be the best in the class, and even though he's relatively undersized, he can mix it up in the blocking game (he wouldn't play at Iowa if he couldn't). His athletic testing opened some eyes at the combine, and though I don't expect him to be drafted in the first round, I would not be surprised at all if Laporta ends up being the most successful player at the position to come out of this draft class. If he played in an offense not designed by a blind porcupine, he would have put up massive numbers. I also believe his after-the-catch ability is the best in the class as well. Iowa makes good tight ends, people. Don't overthink this one. In the right system, he's a potential 900-1,000 yard receiver as he kills teams again and again with slick underneath routes and YAC.

TE4: Michael Mayer, Notre Dame

He's the surest thing in the draft, and that's why I have him this far down the list. I'm sure he's going to be a middling tight end in the NFL. He was a great college tight end, and he's an extremely well-rounded player at the position, but Mayer represents a perfect example of the "jack-of-all-trades, master-of-none", which is great if you're searching for a solid player that can get on the field in an NFL game. If you're spending a first-round pick on a tight end (which is likely what Mayer will command), you need someone who is going to be elite at something. Mayer isn't, and that's why I have him below the others. However, I cannot see a way (aside from injury) that he is not in the NFL for 8+ seasons as a contributor.

TE5: Tucker Kraft, South Dakota State

I think of him as a comparable prospect to Mayer, just less-proven at the higher levels of college football. He's less adept as a blocker and has more upside as a receiver, but I think the end result of Mayer and Kraft's careers end up being practically identical barring one being placed in an incredible system for their skills and the other not experiencing that. Kraft has upside to potentially be a Top-10 TE (not necessarily a difficult group to sneak into at this point), but I think he ends up filling a Hayden Hurst/Dalton Schultz type role as his likely ceiling, where he flashes some nice skills, but ultimately is not a core piece of a team and floats around from team-to-team as a contributor, but not focal point.

2023 NFL Draft Takes: Top Five WRs

These short posts over the course of the week leading up to Thursday night will detail my personal opinions on how the NFL should approach this draft class. I'll try to give some hard-core analysis for some guys, but a lot of this is going to be gut-instinct, armchair-quarterback musings. All correct opinions come directly from me and me alone. All incorrect opinions may be roasted appropriately at a later date.

WR1: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ohio State

Similar to Bijan and the other RBs, JSN is far-and-away the top receiver to me. Before last season even started, he was my WR1 in this draft and despite playing for a total of about two quarters this season, he's still the top dog in this overall extremely weak WR class. A sensational route runner with outrageous body control, JSN is primed to be an overqualified, elite slot WR in this league from the moment he steps on the field with upside as a true WR1. He's not a burner by any means, but many of the best receivers in the NFL (Cooper Kupp, Davante Adams, Justin Jefferson) aren't necessarily speedsters, but just know how to get open. JSN knows how to get open. I'm a huge fan, and I think he's a top-10, blue-chip talent in this draft.

WR2: Zay Flowers, Boston College

He's lightning-fast on film, and he was incredibly productive despite playing with subpar QB talent during his college career (making big plays with bad throws like this). He actually tested out with a substantially slower 40-yard dash (4.42) than I expected, but he plays with elite speed on the field. He's small (5'9", 182 pounds), but this class is full of small receivers. He's the best one of them, and he has upside to be a high-level WR2. Expect him to go in the mid-to-late first round.

WR3: Marvin Mims, Oklahoma

A semi-bold placement here for Mims, but I think he has legitimate upside as a speedy, explosive deep threat in the NFL that would thrive in a passing attack like Kansas City employs, but has value in virtually any offense that wants to create space. He's flown relatively low on most people's radars as Oklahoma's passing attack (and football program in general) has taken a step back in prominence over the past couple years, but he's shown the body control and requisite speed (4.38 40) to win deep at the college level. I have him just behind flowers because I think Flowers has more pop after the catch, but I think Mims could carve out a legitimate role for almost any passing attack in the NFL. Fellow former Sooner receiver Hollywood Brown is an easy comparison to make here in terms of skillset. He's likely going to be around in Round 2 or 3, so he'll end up being the steal of the class if I'm correct about him.

WR4: Jordan Addison, USC

An tremendously productive play in college, the former Biletnikoff winner had another standout season this past year after transferring from Pittsburgh to USC to team up with superstar QB Caleb Williams. He battled some nagging injuries throughout the year, but still put up nearly 900 yards and 8 TDs in his final college season. He's taller than Flowers, but he is skinny and, like many in this draft class, he tested relatively poorly for his size at the combine (4.49 40 at 5'11", 173 pounds). Ultimately, he's a proficient route-runner that plays at a faster speed than his testing suggests, but I'm concerned that his most likely career course is as a WR3-4 that struggles with injuries throughout his career. He'll likely be a later Round 1 or early Round 2 pick. A poor-man's Tyler Lockett or Calvin Ridley is a fair comparison, but I would argue that he's an even-poorer man's version than many tend to make him out to be.

WR5: Quentin Johnston, TCU

I would have left him off the list completely if this was anywhere near a decent class of WRs, but I have to include him just sheerly out of "maybe I'm way off and everyone else ir right" and there isn't really a no-brainer replacement. Johnston is big and relatively fast (according to the media), with generally good athletic tools. He has nice film winning deep balls for the Horned Frogs last season. He also doesn't run sophisticated routes, and his hands seem pretty questionable. Overall, he was a very productive, supremely unrefined player that dominated bad defenses in the Big 12 for one year and suddenly people thought he was better than JSN. Absolutely preposterous. He reminds me of Kevin White (Bears legend) and Travis Benjamin, two productive, bigger receivers that jsut did not translate to the NFL at all over time. Except I think he's worse than Travis Benjamin. If he shows out in the NFL, feel free to call me out for this, but I think he's one of the most fraudulent Round 1 receiver prospects in recent memory. Some team is going to pick him in the first round, most media members will give the pick an "A-" grade, and he's going to end up being completely irrelevant in a weak class of receivers. Book it.