- Jake Hunter
- Nov 2, 2021
- 4 min read
At around 6pm CT this evening, the College Football Playoff Committee released their first iteration of the momentous "CFP Rankings". These rankings offer the public an opportunity to see how the committee would seed the country's teams and, most importantly, which four teams would be in the playoff were it to start today. There's no consistent set of criteria that the committee uses, but these rankings give a sliver of clarity into what they're thinking. Obviously the rankings will change as the season progresses, but the first annual ranking gives analysts and fans alike the opportunity to begin to understand the "rules of engagement" that the committee will be abiding by that particular year.
Also, we get the opportunity to ridicule some of the PREPOSTEROUS decisions they make.
What They Got Right
Georgia At #1
Duh.
Cincinnati At #6
This is a controversial ranking for the undefeated Bearcats, and it signals that the CFP committee is prepared to leave Cincinnati out of the playoff field unless major shake-ups occur. I think this is the right move. Cincinnati is a very good team and deserves the attention of the nation as the most accomplished Group of 5 team in the CFP era. Their wins on the road versus Indiana (a decent team at the time) and #10 Notre Dame are more legitimate than the typical Group of 5 team will have, but the AAC is weak this season.
At the end of the day, I think it is less impressive to play well for a couple big-ish games in a year and then cruise through a garbage conference schedule than it is to drop one game in the midst of a Power 5 conference schedule. It's valid to argue that a team can only play the teams on their schedule, but when it comes to garnering a playoff berth, you need to have a body of work that stands out compared to your peers (unless you're from the SEC).
If a team wants to make the CFP, they should probably play more than half their games against legitimate football programs. Unless all the other teams in contention have two losses, I side with the committee in excluding Cincinnati from the playoff.
Oregon Ahead of Ohio State (For Now)
To be clear, I don't think Oregon is a better team than Ohio State at this point, and I could easily see the Buckeyes jumping Oregon later this year even if both teams keep winning. However, head-to-head matchups have to mean something. If you beat another team and most of the major criteria between the two teams are comparable, you should be rewarded for actually beating the other team on the field. I have my doubts about the Ducks as a legitimately elite squad, but their resume absolutely deserves to be a spot ahead of a team they literally beat just over a month ago.
Oklahoma(#8) and Wake Forest(#9)
Neither of these teams have won a game that really matters, and they're ranked in accordance with that fact. Wake Forest has been fairly convincing in most of their games, but they haven't played a team that will likely finish with more than eight wins in a power conference. Oklahoma looks...better(?) with Caleb Williams at QB, but they've been anything but a juggernaut against a weak schedule. Both teams have a relatively-challenging end of their schedules this regular season, so there is room for them both to add some semi-impressive wins to their resumes. If they keep winning, they should both climb in the rankings. They're ranked where they should be right now.
What They Got Wrong
Alabama At #2
This ranking is solely based off of the name of the team. Alabama's best win is a dominant home victory over Ole Miss, but there have been multiple games in which Alabama was arguably the worse team on the field (they won one and lost one). To be completely honest, this year's Crimson Tide team has been one of the weaker outfits to come out of Tuscaloosa in recent memory, but they're getting all of the benefit of the doubt. This ranking means one thing: The committee is primed to let a two-loss Alabama team into the playoff.
Mississippi State At #17
This ranking is coupled with the point made above, as Mississippi State's inclusion as the only three-loss team in the top 20 serves primarily to bolster Alabama's resume. One of those three losses was to a mediocre AAC team in Memphis, and that loss would cause a lot of damage to a number of SEC teams if the committee looked at it honestly. Mississippi State is a swing team in the SEC because of its wins against Kentucky and Texas A&M. Those two teams look worse if the Bulldogs are ranked lower (where they should be), and the resumes of multiple serious contenders in the SEC take a hit if those teams are ranked accordingly. Mississippi State has some nice wins, but they have multiple indefensible losses (LSU and Memphis). They shouldn't be getting the benefit of the doubt over teams with less losses and good wins in their own right.
Unsurprisingly, the SEC is getting a major boost in these rankings. Despite that, I think the rankings are set up well to sort themselves out over the coming months in a way that should provide us with a compelling playoff. It's important to realize that, for some teams (like Oklahoma), where they are ranked right now is not supremely important due to a stretch of important games coming up. For others (namely Cincinnati), these rankings are essentially a death sentence to their playoff hopes. These kinds of inconsistencies are what makes college football such a mess, but a wonderful mess at that. Feel free to overreact however you see fit until this cycle restarts again next Tuesday.
