2021 NBA Draft Guide
- Jake Hunter
- Jul 28, 2021
- 13 min read
Following a tumultuous past year, the NBA calendar concludes for the 2021 season with the NBA Draft tomorrow (Thursday) night. In a typical season, the draft takes place toward the end of June, but with a COVID-altered season wrapping up, the draft will occur in New York a couple short months before the 2021-22 season commences. On the eve of the 2021 NBA Draft, I present to you a moderately comprehensive guide to the NBA draft and the players who will potentially be going in the famous "lottery", or the first 14 picks. With contenders slated relatively highly in the lottery and several impact players around the league potentially on the move, I personally believe we are in for the most eventful draft evening in recent memory. Without further ado, enjoy a viewing guide that will help give you some context for what's going to take place on Thursday as the league's future is shaped.
The Top Prospects
Cade Cunningham, Oklahoma State
The presumptive #1 pick for essentially the entire past year, the Oklahoma State guard/playmaker shined at the collegiate level to the tune of 20.1 points per game in addition to chipping in 6.5 rebounds and 3.5 assists. An elite feel for the game, the ability to elevate his game in the biggest moments, and a 43.8% shooting stroke have scouts salivating at Cunningham's potential as an offensive hub in the league. After elevating a terrible (sorry, Cowboy fans) team to a top-4 seed in last year's tournament, it's easy to see the value that Cunningham brings on the court, and probably sooner than later.
Evan Mobley, USC
A tantalizing athletic specimen with production to back it up, Mobley is a 7-footer who legitimately moves like a point guard. While not a finished product as a scorer (he still scored 16.4 points per game on 58% shooting), his surprisingly tight handle and insightful passing offer plenty of intrigue on that end of the court. On the defensive end he's undoubtedly one of the most promising prospects in recent memory. Because of his lateral quickness and 7'4" wingspan, he can legitimately guard every position on the court at an elite level, and his shot-blocking anticipation is special. He led the major conferences in blocks per game (2.9) as a freshman, and there's no reason to believe he won't replicate that at the next level. After seeing the value of Suns center Deandre Ayton's defensive versatility in the most recent NBA postseason, Mobley represents an opportunity to nab a "center of the future" prospect that could even play small forward if needed.
Jalen Green, G League Ignite
Green took the G-League route instead of spending a year at the collegiate level, and it appears that his draft stock wasn't altered by that even if he disagrees. An athletic phenom with exceptional scoring punch already, the former top recruit in his class offers an opportunity to potentially draft the next Kobe-esque scorer. Obviously, the Kobe comparison is probably a bit outlandish, but Green has the athleticism and offensive skill to be a 25+ point scorer for years in the league. He shows potential as an offensive playmaker as well despite somewhat humble assist numbers in his one season in the G-League. As an 18 year-old playing against grown men at a high level, Green still stood out on the court. Concerns exist on the defensive end, but it's not hard to see Green elevating his play on that end with the intrinsic athleticism he possesses. If he hits his ceiling, he could legitimately run the NBA. If not, he can still be an impact second option on a championship-caliber team.
Jalen Suggs, Gonzaga
The Gonzaga guard captivated the nation with a magical performance throughout March Madness that reached a pinnacle with one of the most iconic game-winners in tournament history in the Bulldogs' Final Four matchup against UCLA. Suggs is much more than a one-hit wonder, though. A former two-sport mega recruit in high school, Suggs was the heart and soul of Gonzaga's legendary 2020-21 team on both ends. While not a dominant scorer, Suggs seemingly made every possible winning play from blocks, steals, rebounds, and assists to so many plays that don't even show up on the stat sheet. A consummate winner, Suggs will walk into the NBA as an impact two-way guard while also possessing the upside to reach superstardom. If he develops a steady three-pointer, he could be a Top 10 player in the NBA. People who've doubted him have routinely come up on the losing end. Will he prove his doubters wrong again?
The Teams at the Top
In a few moments, the Detroit Pistons went from possibly the most depressing NBA Franchise to an exciting young team with playoff aspirations. In winning the lottery, the Pistons theoretically won the "Cade Cunningham" sweepstakes and look positioned to take a considerable leap within the next few years.
After being victimized in the James Harden fiasco this past season, the Rockets received a little good news in landing the #2 pick this summer. While not at all a good team last season, there are solid pieces like post player Christian Wood on the roster to offer some optimism if they make the right choice with their pick. They won't be a playoff team next year, but they have a boatload of picks to build around Wood and this year's selection for years to come.
Toronto got a huge win after a nightmare season by leaping up to the fourth selection following the lottery. In a draft that has a top tier of 4 players and several high-upside prospects below that tier, the Raptors have the opportunity to land a blue-chip talent to a strong roster. Injuries, COVID absences, and a little lottery luck allowed a team that's closer to a playoff contender than a basement-dweller to add either a win-now piece or a project to bolster their franchise's future.
The Cavs, Magic, and Thunder landed about where they should have. The Magic seem cursed to always just miss out on the top-level prospects in each draft, but they did keep the Bulls' #8 pick to lessen the sting.
Additionally, the Memphis Grizzlies acquired the 10th pick from the Pelicans yesterday in a trade with the Pelicans, so go ahead and rewrite that pick on your screen.
What to Watch For
Bradley Beal On the Move?
Rumors have been swirling that Washington is willing and looking to move their star guard, and plenty of teams are inquiring about what it would take to land the Wizards' star. With the draft on the horizon, keep an eye out for trades for the 30 ppg scorer. Teams to watch: Boston, Golden State, and (dark horse) Memphis.
Does Cade Stay at #1?
Almost all indications seem to suggest that this is the case, and Cunningham was so confident he'd be the first pick that he didn't work out for any other teams in the pre-draft process. Still, murmurs about scouts and executives falling in love with Green or Mobley's potential allow for some drama to exist in what seemed to be a certainty for so long.
Who Goes 5th?
There seems to be consensus that Cunningham, Green and Mobley will be the first three picks in some order (most likely Cunningham, then Green, then Mobley) with Jalen Suggs seeming locked in at 4th to the Raptors. The major drama surrounds the 5th pick, which likely comes down to a choice between Florida State prospect Scottie Barnes, G-League wing Jonathan Kuminga, or possibly UConn scorer James Bouknight. There is definitely a consensus about the tiers of players throughout the lottery, but the order of selections in this draft seems to be in as much flux as any draft in recent memory.
Who Trades Up?
Because the top prospects are great players but not bonafide superstars going into the league in a deep draft, there is tremendous perceived value in potentially trading down and getting more picks/assets. This means, conversely, that there's considerable opportunity for teams to improve their draft position if they love a prospect that will likely go earlier in the draft than they're currently picking. There are rumors all over the place involving every single pick in the top half of the lottery, but here are a couple major ones that could happen:
Where Does Davion Mitchell Land?
Another March Madness star, Mitchell's dominance in the tournament had some people speculating that he could climb even as high as the 5th pick. However, subpar measurables and concerns about his age (22 years old) have seemingly knocked Mitchell down to the late lottery. Popular mock drafts historically had Mitchell landing in Golden State at #7, but recent intel has him sliding back even as far as the Warriors' second pick at #14. Let's see how much the NBA truly knocks a player for their age in this draft.
How Far Does Kuminga Fall?
Once considered to be in the mix with the top 4, concerns about Kuminga on and off the court have brought considerable doubt into the G-League prospect's perception amongst NBA front offices. Kuminga has tremendous upside, but the floor seems lower by the day. He could go anywhere from 5 to late lottery, which seemed impossible a few months ago.
My Prospect Rankings/Breakdowns
How I Approached This
For the purposes of this section, I watched no more than 90 seconds of the first highlight video on YouTube for each of the players mentioned in the Top 20 of the Sports Illustrated NBA Big Board and made my final judgments based solely off those videos and the knowledge I already had from listening to podcasts, watching games, etc.
Top 15 Players (In My Opinion)
1. Evan Mobley
2. Jalen Green
3. Cade Cunningham
4. Scottie Barnes
5. Jalen Suggs
6. Alperen Sengun
7. James Bouknight
8. Josh Giddey
9. Jonathan Kuminga
10. Franz Wagner
11. Moses Moody
12. Kai Jones
13. Keon Johnson
14. Usman Garuba
15. Chris Duarte
What I Think About Each Player (Matched With Where I Ranked Them)
1. Sign me up as a Mobley believer. He's passive at times, but my gosh, he's the most talented player in the draft. He's long, fluid, and surprisingly basketball-intelligent for his age and position. His floor is Deandre Ayton-lite and his ceiling is a better-shooting, less physically-dominant Giannis Antetokounmpo. That's pretty much unstoppable.
2. Green has the most potential to be the face of the NBA in this draft. His athleticism is jaw-dropping, and he's shown plenty of skill to separate him from simply being a great perimeter leaper (think Terrence Ross). Though it's hard to see him being a lockdown defender at any point, his athleticism allows for plenty of optimism regarding his potential on that end. I'm a big Green fan, and I just think he has the second-highest combined two-way potential in the draft, and he's already prepared to contribute at an Anthony Edwards-like level right now on top of that.
3. Cunningham is probably one of the safer picks in the draft. It's hard to imagine him being anything other than a good player in the league. However, I'm personally underwhelmed at his ceiling. He has a tremendous scoring touch and a winning mentality, but I have skepticism regarding his ability as a distributor. If he's going to be the offensive hub experts project him to be, he'll have to show more than he has in that respect. I see him as a less athletic Jayson Tatum, but he won't be the defender that Tatum is. I don't think that's the type of player worth taking over two major-upside players that are ready to contribute at a lower but comparable level right now as well.
4. Barnes is largely an upside pick for me, but I think his floor is a lot higher than others might. He's a winner, he's basketball-savvy, and he can defend anyone. His playmaking chops are tremendous for his age and size. His jumper looks broken right now, which is what holds him back from being even higher on my board, but even if he never grows as a scorer, he can be a more athletic Draymond Green for years in the league. If he does, though, he could easily be the best player in the class.
5. I don't know why, but I just never fell in love with Suggs. I think he is extremely easy to project as a player at the next level, and his ceiling is pretty low without significant improvement on his jump shot. He reminded me at Gonzaga of Jamal Adams or Tyrann Mathieu in the NFL: I think he made a lot of splash plays that made his impact on a game seem larger than it was. He flops a lot, which might be a plus in the NBA at this point, but I think of him as a guy whose toughness is a bit over-exaggerated. He's a great playmaker and an underrated athlete (as ridiculous as that sounds), but I saw him at his absolute best in a favorable matchup against Iowa and was somewhat disappointed by his limitations as a scorer.
6. Nobody at this stage is as slam-dunk as the guys above, so I'm taking a flier on Sengun. The Turkish League MVP at 18 years-old is darn impressive, and he reminds me so much of Nikola Jokic. He'll be a liability on defense, but his potential (and I think he's likely to hit on his potential) as an offensive centerpiece elevates him above the rest of the prospects.
7. A gifted scorer, Bouknight might be one of the most ready-made contributors in the draft. I think his poor shooting season from three was more of an aberration than not, and whatever team takes him will get a plus athlete that can generate offense when necessary. He seems pretty limited beyond that, but his athleticism gives him potential to grow on the defensive end.
8. Josh Giddey is not Luka Doncic, but his size and play style are strikingly reminiscent of the Mavericks star. He's not a dominant athlete, but he's not going to be completely outclassed in that department. I think he's worth taking a swing on as a Doncic-esque player, but his floor is a smart backup point guard with good size, so his downside is palatable regardless.
9. Not a ton to say about Kuminga. His measurables and apparent athleticism make his potential high enough to take him here, but there's plenty not to like as well. He's a pretty solid passer, but he is so raw. Off-court issues complicate him as well.
10. Wagner is a ready-made 3-and-D wing player who definitely specializes more on the defensive half of that coin. If he can work on his shooting stroke, he could be a valuable two-way player, but his defensive versatility and penchant for forcing turnovers and blocking shots guarantees him good value in the present and future.
11. A player who coasted at times and was terrible on the biggest stages in March Madness, Moody was a good scorer at Arkansas who has exciting measurables. At this point, all teams should be taking swings on potential in players, and I think that Moody has the highest two-way upside of the remaining players.
12. I'm not as high on him as others, but Kai Jones is a tantalizing athlete at his size. On a relatively disappointing team relative to its talent, Jones was by no means a feature of the team. However, he showed flashes of a jump shot and twitchy defense at 6'11" that offer immense potential for his long-term prospects as a big man. I think he's worth taking anywhere after the 10th pick.
13. Maybe the best athlete in the draft, Keon Johnson's record-breaking 48-inch vertical jump at the NBA Combine vaulted him up draft boards earlier this month, reaching as high as 6th or 7th on certain big boards. His stock has come back to earth, but he's shown enough on the court to warrant a late lottery pick. His ceiling is a dominant two-way athlete at guard, but his floor is a leaper who doesn't know how to play basketball well.
14. I look at Davion Mitchell kind of like I look at running backs in the NFL: I think you could find someone to fill his role in a ton of fringe NBA players. I may be way off on that, but I think that a 6-footer with short arms is going to be limited defensively no matter how good he looked in college. His 3-point shooting is questionable (great last year, bad before that) and his age (22) is legitimately a concern. Despite all that, I love his attitude and still believe he can contribute right away, making him worth a late lottery look.
15. Duarte is what he will be: A solid rotational wing player. He's 24, so the developmental track for him is in another universe compared to his peers on this list (save for Mitchell, but even then...). He can shoot the ball well and defended a high level in college, so his outlook as an immediate contributor is good. For a team that wants to win now, you could do a lot worse than Duarte.
A Few Off-The-Radar Prospects to Look out for in the Future
These prospects aren't lottery locks by any means, but I think these guys might prove to be better players long-term in the league than where their perceived draft position might suggest. Typically, there are 10-20 players in each draft that end up making any kind of splash in the league long-term (obviously, there are some drafts that are exceptions). I think these guys will be part of that group.
Usman Garuba--Forward/Center, Real Madrid
Garuba is a strong, long forward from the Spanish League overseas whose game just screams "effective role player". He's only 18 years old, and even though his stats overseas (9.8 points per 36 minutes and a horrific 25% from the line) suggest he's limited on the offensive end, I can absolutely see him playing as a small-ball five on certain teams or an energy bench player on another. His 40%+ three-point percentage also suggests that he might bring more offensive punch in future years than he currently does. He's an excellent defender for his age as well. I just really like his game, and I think he'll at least carve out a niche playing solid basketball for a decade. Give him a drastically-improved jumper, and he could easily start at either the 4 or 5 position on a championship-level team down the line.
Cameron Thomas--Shooting Guard, LSU
Sometimes teams just need a bucket. Cam Thomas is a bucket. His freshman year was one of the more impressive scoring campaigns in recent memory for a freshman, and it's easy to see that translating to the NBA given the variety of ways he got his points. He is extremely limited beyond his scoring ability, but there will always be room for a player to come off the bench and get 10-18 points in relatively limited minutes for a team (see Jordan Clarkson).
Joe Wieskamp--Small Forward, Iowa
I'll admit that I'm biased as an Iowa fan, but I've considered Wieskamp's game to be tailor-made for the NBA since I first saw him play. He's an exceptional shooter with good length and surprising athleticism (42-inch vertical) given his play style. He'll likely never be an impact defender, but even if he never elevates his defense to league-average levels, his shooting will make him an asset worth rostering for a decade. I think he's at least as good of an NBA prospect as Corey Kispert, a projected lottery pick, and Wieskamp will almost certainly be available at the end of the first round.
My Attempt to Mock Draft the Current Draft Order
For this exercise, I'm projecting the lottery selections if the draft order remained exaclty how it is right now (Wednesday afternoon). I think there will be a ton of shakeup in this particular draft, so this projection is probably going to be obsolete in 24 hours. However, if I get all 14 picks correct, I won't hesitate to claim my place as the best NBA analyst on the planet. Also, I decided to only do the lottery picks because the NBA draft is so team-specific in the later parts of the draft, and guessing who goes to each team as picks are swapped back and forth ultimately proves to be fairly futile. Without further ado, this is my 2021 NBA Lottery Mock Draft.
The Mock:
Pick 1: Cade Cunningham to the Pistons
Pick 2: Jalen Green to the Rockets
Pick 3: Evan Mobley to the Cavaliers
Pick 4: Jalen Suggs to the Raptors
Pick 5: Scottie Barnes to the Magic
Pick 6: James Bouknight to the Thunder
Pick 7: Jonathan Kuminga to the Warriors
Pick 8: Corey Kispert to the Magic
Pick 9: Franz Wagner to the Kings
Pick 10: Moses Moody to the Grizzlies
Pick 11: Kai Jones to the Hornets
Pick 12: Alperen Sengun to the Spurs
Pick 13: Josh Giddey to the Pacers
Pick 14: Chris Duarte to the Warriors
Thank you for reading!
I can confirm, Mr. Cogito has indeed been saying Joe Wieskamp would be a really good NBA piece for at least as long as I have been Mrs.