Dr. Commish's Final Forecast: 2023 NFL Draft Edition
- jhunter2
- Apr 26, 2023
- 4 min read
By Josh Hunter
What is a Final Forecast?
Weather can be a tricky thing to understand, especially here in the Midwest. Two weeks ago, the University of Iowa's student body tasted all four seasons in a span of four days, starting with summer, followed by spring, then fall, and lastly winter. As unbelievable as that sounds, weather experts were able to predict that weather pattern with a good deal of accuracy after studying the atmosphere and surrounding weather. How do I know this? Well, my phone showed me a weather forecast from the experts, and that forecast ended up coming true.
The NFL Draft is even more unpredictable, and so I, the draft "expert" (term used very loosely), have pieced together a forecast for some of the shenanigans set to go down tomorrow night and throughout the weekend. Don't be shocked if nothing in this forecast happens; every pre-draft prediction is ultimately a shot in the dark, and hitting on one is still highly unlikely even when your eyes adjust, On the other hand, if anything in here ends up happening, remember where you heard it first.
Day 1: Round 1
Round 1 Shockers
1. Georgia DL Jalen Carter falls to #9 overall.
On the field, Jalen Carter may be the best prospect in the entire draft class. However, after being arrested in April and showing up to his pro day overweight and out-of-shape, questions have risen about his character and dedication to the game. If teams aren't willing to take a risk on him, he could slide down in the draft significantly. If he falls to the 9th selection, Chicago must capitalize on his availability by either drafting him or finding a trade partner down the board willing to pay a premium price to move up and take him.
2. The Eagles pass on Texas HB Bijan Robinson to protect the NFL's highest-paid player.
This may be the least shocking of the group, knowing GM Howie Roseman's tendency to make trench picks in the first round and Philadelphia's need at right guard, but I'd still be at least a little surprised. Bijan Robinson is a special talent, and would be an awesome addition to an already phenomenal offense. But the running back class is deep this year, and even though none of the other players at the position impact the game quite like Robinson does at this point, the Eagles can afford to wait to address Jalen Hurts' running mate and land a top-tier talent on the offensive line in Northwestern OL Peter Skoronski.
3. Georgia LB Nolan Smith falls to the back end of the first round.
This wouldn't really be that surprising to me, despite all the hype surrounding Smith as an athlete and a leader. He's crazy fast, but he's undersized for an edge rusher, and hasn't produced at a high level yet. Because of this, I have a feeling that a lot of teams will actually view him as more of a linebacker at the next level, which could tank his draft stock. I still can't see him falling out of the first round due to his athletic testing, but there's a very real chance he could fall to the Eagles' second pick (#30 overall).
4. D.J. Turner is the 4th defensive back taken in the draft.
Speed kills, and D.J. Turner has a lot of it. Throughout the draft process, most people (including me) have viewed Turner as a Day 2 prospect with solid upside, but I'm confident that one of the corner-needy teams in the middle of the first round will take a swing on the fastest player in the draft ahead of Maryland's Deonte Banks or Penn State's Joey Porter Jr.
5. The Vikings trade up into the top 10 for a sliding quarterback.
The Kirk Cousins era may not be quite over in Minneapolis, but the Vikings will have to move on from him sometime soon. If you're reading this, don't be surprised when Goodell strolls out onto the stage in Kansas City to announce a massive trade-up from 23.
Players to Watch
1. Lukas Van Ness - EDGE, Iowa
Theme song: Die A Happy Man - Thomas Rhett
Ideal team: Chicago Bears after a second trade-back
Nightmare scenario: Green Bay Packers
Player comp: Hot J.J. Watt
2. Bryan Bresee - DL, Clemson
Theme song: Fight Song - Rachel Platten
Ideal team: New Orleans Saints
Nightmare scenario: LA Rams in Round 2
Player comp: Brent Urban floor, Chris Jones ceiling
3. Hendon Hooker - QB, Tennessee
Theme song: Truth Hurts - Lizzo
Ideal team: New man on the Minnesota Vikings
Nightmare scenario: Miami Dolphins
Player comp: Jacoby Brissett
Top 3 Picks to Avoid (and why the team will absolutely fall for them)
1. QB Will Levis to the Panthers at #1
Why to avoid him: Not a finished product, couldn't beat Sean Clifford for the Penn State QB job, poor pocket awareness.
Why they'll take him: He's got the size and physical tools to become an awesome QB in a few years.
2. RT Darnell Wright to the Bears at #9
Why to avoid him: Nothing about him says "Top 20 value player" from what I've seen; below-ideal run blocker and struggles at left tackle.
Why they'll take him: He didn't allow a sack last year, and (according to Wright) GM Ryan Poles really likes him as a person.
3. WR Quentin Johnston to the Texans at #12
Why to avoid him: Doesn't know how to use his size, concentration drop issues, flashes of Kevin White.
Why they'll take him: He's long and fast.
Day 2: Rounds 2-3
Players to Watch
1. Cody Mauch - OL, North Dakota State
Theme song: Big Green Tractor - Jason Aldean
Projected landing spot: Green Bay Packers
2. Jack Campbell - LB, Iowa
Theme song: Back in Black - AC/DC
Projected landing spot: Pittsburgh Steelers
3. Cam Smith - CB, South Carolina
Theme song: STAY - The Kid LAROI & Justin Bieber
Projected landing spot: Carolina Panthers
4. Chase Brown - HB, Illinois
Theme song: Hey Brother - Avicii
Projected landing spot: San Francisco 49ers
5. Zach Harrison - EDGE, Ohio State
Theme song: Monster - Skillet
Projected landing spot: Kansas City Chiefs
Chicago is a perfect fit for someone who has been arrested and also for someone who is overweight and out of shape. #bears4jalen #bears4jailin’