Fantasy Football Position Breakdown: Quarterbacks

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With the NFL season fast approaching, millions of football fans around the country are preparing to take part in the annual phenomenon of fantasy football. In an effort to better the lives of my readers, I have decided to publish a series of articles detailing my thoughts on where good value is at each position you might find yourself drafting from. You should be grateful that I'm doing this for free, as you're receiving high-level insight from a defending league champion from last season.

Whether fantasy football is a fun hobby or a constant lifestyle for you throughout this upcoming fall season, I hope you can take some of my opinions to heart for the betterment of your teams. In this edition, I'll break down my thoughts on the most crucial position in real football (but often not in fantasy): Quarterback.

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The Consensus Top 15 Players

This consensus Top 15 was assembled by aggregating the average ranking of the players across numerous major fantasy football outlets.

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1. Patrick Mahomes

2. Josh Allen

3. Kyler Murray

4. Lamar Jackson

5. Dak Prescott

6. Russell Wilson

7. Aaron Rodgers

8. Justin Herbert

9. Ryan Tannehill

10. Tom Brady

11. Jalen Hurts

12. Matthew Stafford

13. Joe Burrow

14. Trevor Lawrence

15. Matt Ryan

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Position Breakdown

Just a few thoughts as I dove into the position rankings.

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It's important to factor in the value of rushing yards changing from league-to-league that clearly influence the aggregate rankings above. My family's league, for example, really values passing yards above all else, while your standard league around the internet will put a significant premium on rushing yards. Pay close attention to this when you're drafting and reviewing cheat sheets, because you might value players much differently than your standard cheat sheet might.

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In a standard league, I'd put Lamar Jackson over Kyler Murray. Murray has higher upside in the passing game because of the receiving weapons around him, but Lamar is a much more consistent runner. I feel that the injury probability for both is about the same (Lamar is more durable, but he takes more hits). Murray started off hot last season as a true dual-threat, but as long as Kliff Kingsbury is calling the plays in Arizona, Murray's ceiling is limited. Too many short passes and handoffs up the middle. If you can't tell, I had Kyler Murray on my team last year and experienced a slight bit of frustration about his usage.

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Aaron Rodgers is too low. People are most likely factoring in his offseason angst with the Packers' front office when ranking him where he is, but I wouldn't bet against him during his last ride in Green Bay. Davante Adams didn't vaporize this summer, and Rodgers didn't need much help outside of Adams to put up an MVP-winning season. I hate to admit it as a Bears fan, but he's still a top-5 option, especially given the Packers' propensity to pass on the goal line instead of running.

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This is a deep crop of talent. Mahomes and Allen seem like guarantees, but I would be perfectly fine with any of the top 13 QBs on my team. What this means for you is that you might be better off waiting a round or two later than you normally would before pulling the trigger on a quarterback this year. If your #1 option is off the board early, stock up on elite players at other positions and grab a Joe Burrow or Justin Herbert in the later rounds. If their health holds up, either of those guys could produce at a top-5 level this season.

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If your league values big passing games, do not take Jalen Hurts. His ranking in the top 15 is based solely on his ability to run. It's not that he's an inherently awful passer, but rather a function of a complete lack of reliable passing weapons in Philadelphia. Unless you think rookie WR Devonta Smith (who is already dealing with injury issues) is going to explode like Justin Jefferson did last season, stay away from Hurts as an option in the draft.

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I didn't include Deshaun Watson in the top 15 because of his pending legal status, but it might not be the worst idea to scoop him up in the last round or two. At worst, he doesn't play and you can replace him with a waiver-wire addition. At best, you land a top-10 fantasy QB producer while everyone else is drafting their kicker.

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Stock Check

Evaluating which players are getting too much hype and which players might surprise a bit this year.

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Overvalued: Kyler Murray

He brings a lot of potential upside on the ground, but I don't see it as the current QB3. If you want to default to a running QB, Lamar Jackson is a better bet. I also think Dak Prescott (health questions aside) and Russell Wilson bring decent running value with significantly higher passing upside than Murray. I don't think Murray is a bust. I just wouldn't value him over guys similarly ranked on the cheat sheets.

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Also Overvalued: Jalen Hurts

I know why he's as high as he is (he can run the ball well and his team is always going to be playing from behind), but I fully expect Hurts to regress this year. He had a couple fine showings last season, but it seemed more like he was making the most of having minimal attention directed his way in his opponents' game-plans. I expect a sophomore slump driven by minimal receiving talent and a relatively uninspiring rushing attack around him. He's not going to sneak up on anyone this year, and I wouldn't value him highly in fantasy even if he did.

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The Value Pick Outside the Top 15: Sam Darnold

Darnold was dealt a continually awful hand during his time in New York, whether via his coaching staff or simply a complete lack of talent around him. While he's not joining a juggernaut of an offense, the talent around Darnold in Carolina vastly supersedes anything the former 3rd-overall pick had on the Jets. Christian McCaffrey is fantasy's RB1 mainly because he is a dynamic receiver out of the backfield. Couple him with WRs DJ Moore and Robby Anderson in conjunction with a competent offensive playcaller (Joe Brady), and I cannot understand how Darnold is slotted in the 30s in the QB rankings. I'm not saying that he's going to set the league on fire, but I could see him as a top-20 fantasy QB and even knocking on the door of top 15 with a few injuries above him. If you're not satisfied with your depth at QB at the end of the draft or in the middle of this season, Darnold is 100% worth a shot.

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Another Possible Underrated Value Pick: Daniel Jones

He had a horrific season last year, but he has talented players around him. If Saquon Barkley is healthy and Jones progresses at all, he could easily be a solid backup QB option. He can run as well, which adds even more value to Jones' fantasy stock. I absolutely wouldn't take him as my first choice for my QB2, but don't shy away from keeping tabs on him throughout the year. Whether it's in a spot-start during a bye week or a waiver-wire pick to keep him away from a QB-needy team in your league, Jones is an intriguing option that doesn't get much attention. Oddly-enough, he's typically ranked a good amount higher than Darnold. I'd recommend not rushing to draft him, but don't be surprised if Jones proves to be a surprisingly solid option in a pinch.

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Tiers of Value

As I'm drafting this fall, this is the way I tend to think of the QBs worth drafting.

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"Can't-Miss Elite Player" Tier

These are the guys you use an early-round pick on and feel great about. They're basically foolproof as long as they don't get injured. Mortgage the farm to land these guys.

Patrick Mahomes

Josh Allen (I really think his running prowess makes him a guaranteed stud)

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"Most Likely Elite" Tier

This tier of guys show significant promise with a couple question marks holding them back. Whether injury, off-field strife (Aaron Rodgers, I'm looking at you), or schematic challenges, these guys have a significant potential hurdle to overcome. Barring that, they could easily win your league for you and seize the QB1 throne.

Aaron Rodgers

Lamar Jackson

Dak Prescott

Justin Herbert

Russell Wilson

Kyler Murray

Tom Brady

Looking at that tier, it's easy to see why I said this is such a deep position. While you or other experts may disagree, I think every single guy in this tier could be a top-3 QB by the end of this year. I put them in order of how I initially might rank them, but I could absolutely be swayed to move any of these players up or down in this tier.

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"Quality Starters at the Very Least" Tier

I wouldn't bet on guys in this tier for sure being a featured aspect of your team, but they're high-floor performers who could be top-8 QBs if things break right for them.

Matthew Stafford

Ryan Tannehill

Joe Burrow

Matt Ryan

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"Filler Player" Tier

This group of guys shouldn't be your QB1, but can probably fill in as a second option. Their absolute ceiling is as a low-end starter in a one-QB fantasy league, but don't expect them to be that.

Kirk Cousins

Baker Mayfield

Jalen Hurts

Trevor Lawrence

Sam Darnold

Derek Carr

Tua Tagovailoa

Daniel Jones

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"Barely Rosterable" Tier

Don't start these guys unless you have to. And don't even pick up anyone who would fall outside of this tier.

Ben Roethlisberger

Ryan Fitzpatrick

Whoever the Bears QB is

Zach Wilson

Whoever the 49ers QB is

Jameis Winston

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Final Advice Regarding This Position Group

Don't rush to draft a QB if there are elite options at other positions available. For example, if the top 2 QBs are gone, but there are a couple top-5 options at both RB and WR coming down the line, go with an RB or receiver over a QB. The difference between Rodgers, Jackson, and even Mahomes and Allen is fairly small within the top nine available. Feel okay with nabbing the 8th or 9th-best QB if it means you can stock up at other positions. If you're in a two-QB league, though, and you have a pick to land Mahomes or Allen, recognize that you have an opportunity to double-dip and land two elite QBs if you play your cards right. Additionally, the next tier of QBs are bonafide starters. Regardless of the size of the draft you are in, you will not miss out on an opportunity to draft a quality QB.