Fantasy Football Position Breakdown: Running Backs

With the NFL season fast approaching, millions of football fans around the country are preparing to take part in the annual phenomenon of fantasy football. In an effort to better the lives of my readers, I have decided to publish a series of articles detailing my thoughts on where good value is at each position you might find yourself drafting from. You should be grateful that I'm doing this for free, as you're receiving high-level insight from a defending league champion from last season.

Whether fantasy football is a fun hobby or a constant lifestyle for you throughout this upcoming fall season, I hope you can take some of my opinions to heart for the betterment of your teams. In this edition, I'm taking a look at the position that is the most valuable of all positions in most standard leagues: Running. Back.

The Consensus Top 25 Players

This consensus Top 25 was assembled by aggregating the average ranking of the players across numerous major fantasy football outlets.

1. Christian McCaffrey

2. Dalvin Cook

3. Derrick Henry

4. Alvin Kamara

5. Saquon Barkley

6. Ezekiel Elliott

7. Jonathan Taylor

8. Nick Chubb

9. Aaron Jones

10. Austin Ekeler

11. Joe Mixon

12. Antonio Gibson

13. Najee Harris

14. Clyde Edward-Helaire

15. J.K. Dobbins

16. D'Andre Swift

17. David Montgomery

18. Chris Carson

19. Miles Sanders

20. Josh Jacobs

21. Darrell Henderson

22. Myles Gaskin

23. Kareem Hunt

24. Travis Etienne

25. Mike Davis

Position Breakdown

Just a few thoughts as I dove into the position rankings.

When drafting RBs (especially in the modern era), you have to evaluate how effective they are likely to be in the passing game in addition to running the ball. Especially in leagues that count receptions as points (PPR, which most leagues are), catches out of the backfield are an absolute treasure trove of points.

There is phenomenal depth in the top 9, but a steep drop afterwards. Any of those top 9 could be an RB1-level producer, but make sure you get at least one of them in your draft.

Rookie RBs are a phenomenal investment. Typically, they plug in and play about as well as any position during their rookie seasons, but they don't have the track record to warrant a high preseason grade on cheat sheets. The candidates referring to this year are: Najee Harris, Travis Etienne, and Javonte Williams. Do not draft them as your first RB, but absolutely jump at the opportunity to take them later in the draft as a high-upside pick.

Miles Sanders and Josh Jacobs, both top-5 preseason RBs last year, are now barely in the top-20. I think both have great value from those spots.

If your league incentivizes pure rushing yards and touchdowns and is not PPR, Derrick Henry and Dalvin Cook are the top two RBs in this class. If that's the case, drop Saquon out of your top 8 as well.

Overall, I think the value of the RB class this year is concentrated in the first 9 and mid-late teens, meaning you should probably wait to grab another RB for a round or two the moment the top nine are picked. You'll get a similar or even higher-level player at RB while simultaneously shoring up another position or two.

Stock Check

Evaluating which players are getting too much hype and which players might surprise a bit this year.

The C.J. Spiller Honorary Award For A Top-5 RB That Is Terrible

Alvin Kamara

I had to pick someone. It's tempting to say any of Saquon, Dalvin Cook, or Christian McCaffrey (given injury histories), but I don't think it's fair to bet on injuries for this award. My rationale for choosing Kamara is centered around the Saints' questionable QB situation in addition to Sean Payton's pure obsession with Taysom Hill. No, Drew Brees wasn't a world-beater in his final season, but he was still a valuable cog in the machine that was the Saints' offense. I think Kamara's receiving numbers take a hit this year, and I wouldn't be shocked if his rushing yards scaled back as well. A subpar QB situation harms every aspect of an offense, and I don't think Sean Payton's going to be able to scheme up the same situations Kamara feasted on last season. I'm probably going to look stupid when Kamara inevitably gets some MVP buzz and leads the league in scrimmage yards. Oh well. He can put that MVP trophy beside this one on his mantel.

Overvalued: Joe Mixon

I don't know how he does it, but Mixon finds his way into the top 10 preseason RBs every single year and continually underperforms for that role. He's a fine receiver, and he'll put together a couple solid games on the ground. He is not a player that a winning team would have as their #1 option. He's inconsistent and injury-prone on a team that will probably throw the ball a million times this year because they're losing so often. I'm only a little bitter because I have repeatedly deluded myself into taking him several years in a row after he falls a little bit in my leagues' drafts. No more, Joe. I've fallen for your tricks for the last time.

The Value Pick of All Value Picks: David Montgomery

While he didn't exactly set the world on fire in his rookie season or the first half of his sophomore campaign, Montgomery flashed the potential Bears fans had dreamed about down the stretch run of the 2020-21 season. He accomplished this, mind you, with a depleted offensive line and a combination of Mitchell Trubisky and Nick Foles doing their absolute best to keep defenses completely focused on him coming out of the backfield. Though the QB situation is vastly improved, the O-line stability alone should make Montgomery at least a top-10 RB pick. He's shown enough as a receiver to make him a threat to be top-5. I think this is his breakout season, and you'd do well to capitalize on it as soon as possible. If you take him as the sixth or seventh RB in your draft, you won't be disappointed.

An Out-of-Left-Field Value Pick: Trey Sermon

I ventured all the way outside the top 40 of most cheat sheets' RBs for this pick, but I absolutely love the upside Sermon has if he can seize a solid share of the 49ers' carries this season. Raheem Mostert is the home-run hitter in that backfield, but his frame limits him from being a true bell-cow. Enter the rookie Sermon, who is absolutely built to carry the ball 20+ times a game in his first year. If you're looking for a FLEX or backup RB, Sermon is absolutely worth giving a close look at.

Tiers of Value

As I'm drafting this fall, this is the way I tend to think of the RBs worth drafting.

"Can't-Miss Elite Player" Tier

These are the guys you use an early-round pick on and feel great about. They're basically foolproof as long as they don't get injured. Mortgage the farm to land these guys.

Christian McCaffrey

Dalvin Cook

Derrick Henry

"Most Likely Elite" Tier

This tier of guys show significant promise with a couple question marks holding them back. Whether major injury concerns, off-field strife, or schematic challenges, these guys have a significant potential hurdle to overcome. Barring that, they could easily win your league for you and seize the RB1 throne.

Nick Chubb

Saquon Barkley

Alvin Kamara

David Montgomery

Aaron Jones

Jonathan Taylor

Ezekiel Elliott

Najee Harris

"Quality Starters at the Very Least" Tier

I wouldn't bet on guys in this tier for sure being a featured aspect of your team, but they're high-floor performers who could be top-10 RBs if things break right for them.

Austin Ekeler

Antonio Gibson

J.K. Dobbins

Clyde Edwards-Helaire

D'Andre Swift

Joe Mixon

Miles Sanders

Josh Jacobs

Travis Etienne

"Filler Player" Tier

This group of guys should not be your RB1, but can probably fill in as a second option on a bye week. Their ceiling is as a low-end second RB starter, but don't expect them to be that.

Chris Carson

Darrell Henderson

Myles Gaskin

Raheem Mostert

Chase Edmonds

Kareem Hunt

Damien Williams

"Barely Rosterable" Tier

Don't start these guys unless you have to. And don't even pick up anyone who would fall outside of this tier.

Michael Carter

James Robinson

Javonte Williams

Zach Moss

David Johnson

Kenyan Drake

Leonard Fournette

Ronald Jones

Melvin Gordon

Final Advice Regarding This Position Group

Draft an RB early, and try to get two in the top two tiers above if you can. If not, be patient and wait a few rounds. There is a lot of meh right after the top 10, but there are some potential gold mines in the late teens. Look for rookies with minimal competition in run-heavy offenses in the late rounds, and please don't take Joe Mixon as one of the top 10 RBs. It'll be better for your long-term health if you don't.

skkyjaker@yahoo.com