Fantasy Football Position Breakdown: Wide Receivers

In this edition of "Fantasy Football Position Breakdown" I am taking a look at the the Wide Receivers.

The Consensus Top 25 Players

This consensus Top 25 was assembled by aggregating the average ranking of the players across numerous major fantasy football outlets.

1. Davante Adams

2. Tyreek Hill

3. Stefon Diggs

4. Calvin Ridley

5. Deandre Hopkins

6. D.K. Metcalf

7. A.J. Brown

8. Justin Jefferson

9. Terry McLaurin

10. Allen Robinson

11. Keenan Allen

12. CeeDee Lamb

13. Mike Evans

14. Amari Cooper

15. Robert Woods

16. Chris Godwin

17. Julio Jones

18. Adam Thielen

19. DJ Moore

20. Cooper Kupp

21. Tyler Lockett

22. Brandon Aiyuk

23. Kenny Golladay

24. Diontae Johnson

25. Tee Higgins

Position Breakdown

Just a few thoughts as I dove into the position rankings.

A couple things to consider when valuing wide receivers: Does your league use yardage bonuses and is it a PPR league? If your league uses yardage bonuses, you'll want to err on the side of players who tend to, unsurprisingly, have high yardage totals from year to year. If not, touchdowns are the gold mine. Certain receivers like Mike Evans and Adam Thielen are go-to targets for their teams in the red zone, and they'll be very likely to amass high TD totals. This opposes WRs like DJ Moore and Diontae Johnson (historically, at least), who accumulate plenty of yards in the intermediate portions of the field instead of stacking up high volumes of touchdowns. Additionally, if your league is a PPR league (most are), slot receivers have plenty of value. Keenan Allen is a tremendous volume receiver, so he might sneak up the rankings for you in a league like that compared to a different, non-PPR league.

The group of players at this position that I feel good about is far and away the thinnest of the positions I've detailed so far. After the top three, I think there is a substantial drop in certainty regarding the players' projection. After writing the above point, however, I want to emphasize that these blue-chip receivers will gain tons of yards and touchdowns regardless. No matter your league, those players are the ones to target.

Like rookie RBs, rookie WRs are typically a phenomenal investment in this day and age. Justin Jefferson was the prime example last season with an All-Pro type of performance, but the receiving classes have been very deep and productive for several years in a row now. While not featured highly in the preseason rankings because of lack of track record, there are plenty of solid rookie players to draft as depth pieces that may evolve into impact players by season's end. A few names I'm looking at: Ja'Marr Chase, Elijah Moore, and Amari Rodgers.

Speaking of Justin Jefferson, I think he's due for a regression this year. I think he'll still be in the top-15 mix, but he's more of a focal point for defenses to plan for in the offseason, and his team's offensive scheme holds him back to a degree. I feel pretty confident that his numbers will be worse this year even if he improves as a player. He was just that special last year.

Overall, I think the value of the WR class this year is extremely high in the top three and then fairly comparable for about 12-15 more players. Seriously. I don't think there's much of a gap between the consensus #4 (Calvin Ridley) and the consensus #14 (Amari Cooper) at all. After the top 18 or so, there's a drop off, and then beneath that is a lot of mystery.

Stock Check

Evaluating which players are getting too much hype and which players might surprise a bit this year.

Deandre Hopkins Is Perpetually Fooling Everyone

Deandre Hopkins has filled a very similar role on my fantasy teams to Joe Mixon over the years. He routinely disappoints me. In the NFL, he's often mentioned as the absolute best receiver based on skill and ability. This does not translate to fantasy football. I don't know if it's him or just the schemes that he has played in throughout his career, but he always appears much more appealing that his fantasy production would suggest. He sprinkles in just enough big games to keep him worth playing, but he puts up plenty of stinkers. I suppose that he theoretically has as good of a chance to be a top-5 fantasy producer as anyone below the top three players, but I don't mean that in a complimentary way and I don't think that's the type of player he'll ultimately be. A team with Deandre Hopkins as its #1 receiver will not win because of their WRs. They'll win in spite of them.

The Value Pick In the Top 25: Cooper Kupp

Kupp has been phenomenal for multiple seasons with less-than-phenomenal quarterback play in Los Angeles. With Matthew Stafford joining the Rams this offseason, I think Kupp finally has a chance to emerge as a cornerstone receiver in the league with a higher volume of targets his way. Stafford allows the Rams to open the passing game up more than before, and I think this development with help Cooper Kupp's production more than teammate Robert Woods'.

An Out-of-Left-Field Value Pick: Darnell Mooney

My Bears fandom is showing with some of these value pick suggestions, but it reflects a sense of optimism for the 2021-22 Bears offense compared to last year. This hinges on QB play (not generally assumed to be a strong point in Chicago), but if there is an upgrade to mid-level QB play this year, certain Bears playmakers will produce at a higher level than the current market has them projected at. Mooney was terrific last season and showed out as a legitimate option across from Allen Robinson. I think Mooney will produce at a WR3 or even WR2 level with an uptick in QB play, and his current valuation in the 50s for receivers is asinine. He was playing at that level last season in the worst football offense of all time (maybe a bit hyperbolic). I don't see him regressing this year, and the upside is enormous here.

Tiers of Value

As I'm drafting this fall, this is the way I tend to think of the WRs worth drafting.

"Can't-Miss Elite Player" Tier

These are the guys you use an early-round pick on and feel great about. They're basically foolproof as long as they don't get injured. Draft these guys with one of your first two picks if you have a chance, but if any of them drop to the 3rd, take them regardless of your previous picks. If you have 2 of these guys on your roster, you're approaching the driver's seat for the championship. I think they're that much better than the other options.

Davante Adams

Tyreek Hill

Stefon Diggs

"Best of the Rest" Tier

The players in this tier are probably going to have some big games, but their consistency is what holds them back. However, they could easily be a major contributor to you winning your league while they seize the "best of the rest" throne.

A.J Brown

D.K Metcalf

Deandre Hopkins

Terry McLaurin

Allen Robinson

Calvin Ridley

Keenan Allen

"Probably Quality Starters" Tier

I wouldn't bet on guys in this tier for sure being a featured aspect of your team, but they're high-upside performers who will likely be top-10 WRs if things break right for them.

Justin Jefferson

Amari Cooper

Cooper Kupp

CeeDee Lamb

Adam Thielen

Mike Evans

Julio Jones

Ja'Marr Chase

DJ Moore

Robert Woods

Tyler Lockett

Tee Higgins

Chris Godwin

Diontae Johnson

Michael Thomas

"Filler Player" Tier

This group of guys wouldn't be ideal as a first or second WR, but can probably fill in periodically. Wide receivers are inherently volatile from a fantasy perspective, and these are the types of guys who could have a couple big games mixed in with a lot of meh.

Kenny Golladay

Brandon Aiyuk

Chase Claypool

Courtland Sutton

Odell Beckham Jr.

Michael Gallup

Will Fuller V

Curtis Samuel

Robby Anderson

Darnell Mooney

Cole Beasley

"Barely Rosterable" Tier

Don't start these guys unless you have to. And don't even pick up anyone who would fall outside of this tier.

JuJu Smith-Schuster

Elijah Moore

Rashod Bateman

Brandin Cooks

Deebo Samuel

Tyler Boyd

DJ Chark Jr.

Marquise Brown

Antonio Brown

Jaylen Waddle

Devonta Smith

Nelson Agholor

Jarvis Landry

Jamison Crowder

Final Advice Regarding This Position Group

Draft one of the top three early if you can. Like, as one of your first two picks. The dropoff is significant. If you can't feasibly land one of the big-time guys, feel free to be patient. Value is pretty constant for a while, and those next three or four picks after rounds 1 and 2 would be best spent grabbing high-quality players from a couple other positions. Make sure to have at least three guys in my top three tiers, and ideally more than that. This position really is one of the more random groups after the top tier each year, and you're better off betting on higher-certainty players from other positions than this one.

However, with high volatility comes high value in the later rounds. Be active on the waiver wire for the undrafted players throughout the season. You can easily steal a win or two along the way with a couple shrewd one-week pickups. Do your research about which guys are more specialized for your type of league, and you'll do just fine with this position. WR is an extremely malleable position, and you can easily piece together a competent WR unit after the draft if you make sure to stock up on high-value picks.

If you land one of the top three, you automatically have a strong group (barring injuries).

Good luck with this one!

Thanks for reading!

skkyjaker@yahoo.com