NBA Finals Game 2 Preview/Prediction

The Phoenix Suns looked dominant in Game 1 of the NBA Final on Tuesday night, cruising to a 118-105 home win over the Milwaukee Bucks led by Chris Paul's dazzling 32 points and 9 assists. Giannis Antetokounmpo looked more than adequate in his return from a scary knee injury in the previous series, but he clearly looked like his conditioning was below its normal level. I expect that will improve in Game 2, but how much it improves is difficult to gauge.

Key Points Heading Into Game 2

• Deandre Ayton continues to impress on both ends. There is no player that has elevated his standing in the league during this postseason than Phoenix's young center

• Jrue Holiday was atrocious in Game 1. I expect him to bounce back, making an especially sizable impact on the defensive end guarding Chris Paul

• The Suns demolished the Bucks in the pick and roll whenever Brook Lopez or Bobby Portis were isolated on Chris Paul or Devin Booker. Look for adjustments to be made by the Bucks by limiting the switching, particularly when Holiday begins on Paul or Booker

• The Suns had a decidedly favorable whistle in Game 1, shooting 10 more free throws. It felt like even more. Now, they were sensational as a team shooting them (going 25-26), but I cannot imagine them having such a decided advantage in Game 2

• Booker, despite the team's performance, was a little off. He's due for a huge game

X-Factor for Each Team

Suns: Cam Payne

I'm tempted to say Ayton, but he's been so consistent that he is almost a guaranteed ~20 points and ~15 rebounds with excellent defense. I think Holiday is going to limit Paul and Booker .will get on track with a big game. Phoenix needs a little more punch on offense to combat what has to be a better defensive showing from Milwaukee. Sign me up for a big Cam Payne showing in what has been a dream postseason for the backup point guard. If not, I truthfully don't think Phoenix wins.

Bucks: Jrue Holiday

I've mentioned him a bunch already, but the Bucks need Holiday to be on his A-game tonight. He was about a D+ last game, and Milwaukee still found a way to make Game 1 competitive in the second half. Giannis should be even closer to 100%, and I truly do think the Bucks are in a good spot to steal one on the road. They won't do it if Holiday isn't an impact player on both ends. They can survive a Khris Middleton no-show (not uncommon at all) if their point guard chips in 20 points, limits his bad turnovers, and severely limits Chris Paul.

Prediction

I think Game 1 swung Phoenix's way in a LOT of ways, and the Bucks are positioned well for the pendulum to swing back. I think Holiday puts it together, they patch some of the holes on defense, and Giannis is back to vintage form. Booker has a pretty big game and Ayton does his thing, but Chris Paul's production takes a big step back. That's all it'll take, and the series will head back to Milwaukee tied 1-1.