NBA Finals Game 6 Preview: Chris Paul's Legacy On the Line
- Jake Hunter
- Jul 20, 2021
- 5 min read
What Happened Last Game
With the series knotted up at 2 games apiece, the general consensus among experts and fans alike was that Phoenix would take Game 5 at home after dropping two consecutive road matchups. A first quarter explosion from the Suns led by Devin Booker's 11 points and essentially nobody else missing a shot (I'm not kidding, check it out) built a lead of much as 16 points going into the second quarter, and it appeared that there would be little drama surrounding the outcome in the newly-christened Footprint Center.
Given the history of this Bucks team, I was pessimistic regarding their chances to crawl back into the game. Milwaukee has been a front-running type of team for the past several years that struggles to compete at elite levels in close games or coming from behind. This game, much like this postseason in general, has been all about this talented core exorcising clutch-time demons. In Game 5, likely the highest-stakes game of the Finals thus far for both teams, the Bucks took an absolute haymaker from Phoenix in the first quarter and flipped the script completely in less than one quarter. Led by outstanding two-way play by Jrue Holiday and hot shooting from Khris Middleton and role player Pat Connaughton, the Bucks not only erased a 16-point deficit, but carried a three point lead into halftime.
The teams traded blows for the first half of the 3rd quarter before Milwaukee finished the quarter strong rattling off a 16-6 run and holding onto a 10-point lead going into the game's final frame. There was a considerable amount of trading baskets between Milwaukee's trio and Devin Booker, who never cooled off in this game (40 points), but the Suns had one final push in the last six minutes to close the gap to one basket.
Massive shots by Chris Paul and Booker brought the score to 120-119 with 56.6 seconds remaining in the game. Jrue Holiday couldn't get a floater to fall, and suddenly Phoenix had the ball in Devin Booker's hands down by one point with 29 seconds left and an opportunity to steal a massive game in the series on their home court. What ensued in the seconds afterwards was one of the most electrifying two-way sequences in recent Finals history. In four seconds, the Bucks won a pivotal Game 5 and Jrue Holiday wrote the emphatic final chapter on what will possibly be the defining game of his career. The final score was 123-119, and the Bucks officially had full control of the series with the promise of an opportunity to clinch the series at home in Game 6.
Major Storylines Heading Into This Game
Chris Paul Needs a Win
In a stellar career, Paul has been much-maligned for his playoff shortcomings (for good reason). Now, with what will probably his best opportunity to win a title in his career starting to fade, the "Point God" must elevate his play to save Phoenix's season. Injured or not, CP3 has playoff demons to exorcise on the biggest stage tonight. I don't expect him to drop 35+ points (although he did do that after he allegedly hurt his wrist), but his team needs more than what he's been giving them these past few games. If his team comes up short, this will be the fourth series he's lost in his career where his team previously held a 2-0 lead. Not great, Bob. Be ready for CP3 to give it his all in this one, whatever that might mean at this point.
Khris Middleton Has Been Terrific, Giannis Has Been Legendary
For some reason, NBA players around the league don't publicly like or respect Giannis. This was brought to my attention before Game 5 while listening to The Chris Vernon Show (a podcast I absolutely recommend), and it was evident as the game wore on that there is an absurd absence of affection from fellow NBA players for arguably the league's brightest young star. Khris Middleton, Giannis' counterpart, has had a couple terrific games in a row. So terrific that a few prominent voices in the league have chimed in that Middleton, not Giannis, should be awarded NBA Finals MVP instead of the Greek Freak.
Middleton is averaging 25.4 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 5.4 assists for the series, which is a phenomenal stat line from a player who is well-known for being a wildly-inconsistent performer throughout his career. Giannis is putting up 32.2 points (on 60%+ shooting!), 13 rebounds, and 5.6 assists while simultaneously locking down the paint the entire time. I'm not a math guy, but it looks like at least some of those stats seem to favor Giannis. Combine that with the fact that Giannis has been an integral part of the two defining plays of the Finals, and there is no argument against his Finals MVP case.
Jrue Holiday's Magnum Opus
Holiday's fingerprints were already all over this series. Despite anemic offensive output, Holiday is the clear cause (besides injury, allegedly) of Chris Paul's steady decline in performance throughout the series. On Saturday night, the offense finally clicked, and it led to Holiday making a bit of history. Holiday was the catalyst for the Bucks' furious second quarter comeback, and his steal against Devin Booker followed by a gutsy, perfect alley-oop to Giannis to seal the game will be remembered by NBA fans forever. I called for Holiday to rise to the occasion, and he could not have had a better performance for his team in Game 5.
Booker Drops 40+, Loses Again
Devin Booker has been sensational for the past two games, scoring 42 and 40 in Games 4 and 5, respectively. His team failed to take advantage in both contests. A putrid Chris Paul performance contributed to the Game 4 loss, but Booker's teammates actually rose to the occasion in Game 5. The Suns shot 55% from the field and 60% from three-point rang and still lost. This gets at something I postulated earlier in the series about the relative ceilings of the teams. I just think the Suns are very good, but not truly great on defense and are limited offensively even when they shoot well, and the Bucks can be offensive and defensive titans when they're at their best.
Stock Watch
Stock Up: Jrue Holiday
He was sensational on both ends., and his offense seems to be here to stay for the moments. If he plays at 80% the level he played at in Game 5, this series is over. The Bucks have a legit Big Three if Holiday plays like this consistently.
Stock Down: Chris Paul
I won't rip him too much more. There are probably extenuating circumstances, but he still hasn't been good.
Stock Up: Khris Middleton
While appropriately cast as an inconsistent second option for this team in the past, Middleton has risen to the occasion the past few games. If he has a big game in a closeout Game 6, we might need to have a new conversation about where Middleton sits in the hierarchy of the league today.
Stock Up: Devin Booker
He dropped 40 in consecutive Finals games. I think he's got more to add to his game to be a true superstar, but his scoring acumen is elite amongst his peers.
Final Prediction
The Bucks are rounding into their best form, and they weathered the absolute best opposing performance they could get from Phoenix in an incredibly hostile environment. It was a championship performance from your 2021 NBA Champions. Game 6 might be close, but I personally think it'll be more of a coronation than a competition.
We need more stonks man analysis in these types of major matchups
I really like the Stocks part of your analysis! Partially because I like the little boiled down bits about how players are doing and partially because the Stonks meme makes me laugh every