NCAA Men's Basketball Tier List (2/23/2022)

UConn got a monster win last night. Does it move the needle for their NCAA Tournament chances?

As we head into the home stretch of the NCAA regular season, I've spent time talking on the podcasts talking about "tiers" on college basketball teams. For the next few weeks, I'll put pen-to-paper and stratify the teams by where I see them in the larger landscape of the sport heading into March.

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The Title Favorites

These teams are in championship-or-bust territory. While I'm not saying the national champion team will come from this group (March Madness is madness, after all), these are the teams that have shown that they're built to win the championship.

Team	Record	AP Poll Ranking	NCAA NET Ranking	Ken Pomeroy Ranking
Gonzaga	23-2	1	1	1
Arizona	24-2	2	2	3
Kentucky	22-5	6	3	2
Duke	23-4	12	7	9
Texas Tech	22-6	9	8	6

I'm stepping out a little bit by slotting Texas Tech in this spot, and I might look foolish for doing this in a few weeks. I'm just very impressed by their experience and defensive prowess, and I think they're built to have a high floor during the tournament.

Duke is still the most talented team in the country, and if they play to their ceiling, they're a title-winner.

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The "I could see them winning it all" Teams

The favorites don't always win it all in March (shocking), but it's extremely rare for the champion to not come from teams with a certain power ranking and analytical profile. To put it bluntly, I'll be shocked if the national champions are not in this group or the group above.

Team	Record	AP Poll Ranking	NCAA NET Ranking	Ken Pomeroy Ranking
Auburn	24-3	3	10	8
Purdue	24-4	4	11	13
Kansas	23-4	5	5	5
Baylor	23-5	10	6	4
Illinois	19-7	15	14	16
Villanova	21-7	8	8	12
UCLA	20-5	12	13	10

I think the most controversial aspects of this are probably the teams I might have "bumped down" into this tier as opposed to having them in the upper tier. The teams that have the strongest case (and they can feel free to make it over the next few weeks) are Auburn, Purdue, and Kansas. They all have love from the AP, but I think the analytics back up my opinion (with the exception of Kansas) that those teams might be a bit overvalued. My gripe with Kansas is that they don't pass the eye-test for me. They got destroyed at home by Kentucky earlier this year as well as dropping a game at the beginning of the year to a mediocre Michigan State team. All these teams have their shortcomings, but Kansas has just left too sour of a taste in my mouth to take them supremely seriously. Still, they deserve to be in this tier.

Baylor lost Jonathan Tchamwa-Tchatchoua (and I spelled that correctly the first time before even looking it up), which tempers their outlook. I wouldn't underestimate the value of Scott Drew's coaching prowess in March, though.

Similar to Baylor, my inclusion of Villanova is almost solely due to respect for Jay Wright. This year's team isn't at the level of the title contenders of years past, but they're still a tough out that has championship-level attitude and calmness. That could lead to them over-performing in March.

If Kofi Cockburn stays out of foul trouble (I'm skeptical as to whether he will), Illinois might be a better shot to make the Final Four than last year (hot take). If a team figures out how to relegate him to the bench for an extended portion of a game, Illinois could absolutely flame out like last year.

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The "Could Feasibly Make the Final Four" Tier

These are low-floor, volatile teams whose ceiling is a run to the Final Four. That's definitely not a bad spot to be in.

Team	Record	AP Poll Ranking	NCAA NET Ranking	Ken Pomeroy Rankings
Houston	22-4	14	4	7
Tennessee	20-7	17	9	11
Texas	19-8	20	15	14
UConn	20-7	21	16	17
Arkansas	22-6	18	23	19
Alabama	18-10	24	22	20

I separated this group of teams as a group of teams that have HIGH potential that I could also see losing in literally the first round. I would listen to arguments that UConn and Houston belong in the next tier (because their steady) or that a couple other teams should be in this tier, but this is just how I see it now. I think Houston and UConn have a higher variance in potential options than the rest of the teams in my tiers list. This particular tier is, unsurprisingly, very volatile.

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The "Solid chances to win a couple games" Tier

This is the tier of teams that I think are exceedingly solid, but I'm skeptical that they are truly good enough to make/win an Elite Eight game without tremendous help from the rest of their bracket (see: Oregon State and Houston in 2021).

Team	Record	AP Poll Ranking	NCAA NET Ranking	Ken Pomeroy Ranking
Wisconsin	21-5	13	20	25
Ohio State	17-7	22	19	21
USC	23-4	16	24	27
LSU	19-8	Unranked	17	18
Iowa	19-8	25	18	15
Providence	22-3	11	28	46

Kind of a weird grouping here, as I think LSU is definitely a candidate for the tier above. I just don't see the ceiling for LSU being that high (Final Four). I do think they're a team that could make a Sweet Sixteen.

I do not buy Providence, and clearly the analytics don't either. They're going to be the popular first/second round upset pick if they're a top-four seed in their region.

You might scoff at me including Iowa and Wisconsin in the same tier (I may be way off on that), but I just think this Iowa team is built to win at least a game or two in March. Wisconsin could absolutely lose a second-round game (or even a first-round game) if they got a bad draw, and I think their ceiling is lower than Iowa's. From a tournament perspective, I think the two teams have a similar mean result in the tournament.

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Everyone Else