NFL Draft Week Takes: TRADE BACK

As I look at the landscape of the upcoming NFL Draft on Thursday night, I cannot help but scream (electronically) to the NFL GMs that are definitely reading this blog two words: TRADE BACK.This take is centered around a few core opinions I (and several others) have about this current draft class as well as NFL draft strategies in general that go beyond just this year's class. I'll share a few of them below:

Trading Back Is Usually A Smart Move Regardless

When it comes to asset management in the NFL, draft picks are a very valuable commodity. Some teams certainly value them less than others (see: the Rams), but NFL teams should always be cognizant of the value of their total draft capital. There's a fine line to balance between caring too much about draft picks and not caring enough, but acquiring value in draft picks can really set a franchise up for prolonged, sustainable success.

Much of the value associated with draft picks is the fact that the contracts assigned to incoming rookies can be exceptionally affordable for the team over the course of four-to-five years. Now, the team needs to make the right pick for that value to be maximized, but the upside of landing an impactful player on a contract that is a fraction of what their true worth is presents an extremely enticing opportunity for franchises trying to build a winning squad. We talked about this on our podcast recently, so if you are curious about just how affordable rookie players can be, feel free to check that out.

Now back to my core tenet: Trading back is smart. The reason why trading back in the draft is smart is the fact that your team will often recoup more (and oftentimes considerably more) draft capital than it is surrendering if your team is trading back in the draft. I'll use a trade from last year's draft that is especially relevant for a number of people at Cogito Ergo Cogito: the Bears/Giants trade that landed Justin Fields:

There are several ways to quantify draft capital and that algorithm certainly varies from team-to-team, but I think it is fair to say that the Bears surrendered more than they received from an overall draft capital standpoint. They swapped first-round picks with the Giants and moved up nine spots, but they had to give up a future first rounder (very valuable) and a couple later-round picks to accomplish it. In pure draft capital terms, the Giants gained a TON more assets than they gave up.

So why would a team trade up in the first place? The answer is that they really like a player that they can draft in that spot. While I personally don't love the move, in all honesty, there are numerous examples of success stories with teams trading up to land certain player (eg. the Chiefs trading up to draft Patrick Mahomes). The important thing, in my opinion, is to realize that really the only position worth reaching for is the quarterback position. Perhaps an generational tackle or edge rusher prospect would be worth consideration as well, but smart teams typically realize that the only time to surrender immense draft capital is for the chance to land a franchise-altering prospect at the most important individual position in sports: quarterback.

This brings me to the fatal flaw of this current draft as it stands.

There Is No Franchise QB Prospect

Much has been made about a "lack of elite talent" in this current draft class' quarterback crop, and I believe this is a fair assessment. I'm sorry to all the fans of Kenny Pickett, Malik Willis, and Desmond Ridder. They're simply not franchise quarterback prospects. Certain traits (both physical and mental/social) are highly valued by NFL franchises, and each of these players is markedly deficient in a number of those traits. I'll be fair: it's rare for prospects to be so well-rounded that their traits (I apologize for using that word excessively, but it's probably the best way to describe NFL teams' thought processes) are practically unassailable. but this particular class is uniquely uninspiring.

Kenny Pickett is Joe Burrow-lite, which might be good enough to make him the first pick from the group, but his physical tools are meh. Malik Willis is very talented but wildly inconsistent and often inaccurate. Ridder has a solid all-around profile, but he doesn't jump out in any category (arm strength, athleticism, accuracy).

This class is weak at the QB position from a talent perspective, and while that doesn't mean all of them will be subpar NFL quarterbacks, it means that most of them probably will be. That ultimately means that the most valuable position in the draft is very lean this year, and teams would be better-suited to try to pawn off their picks to QB-needy team. The problem is that those teams might not even think it's worth it for these QBs.

The EDGE Guys Aren't Generational

Aidan Hutchinson. Kayvon Thibodeaux. Travon Walker. These are the names you'll hear associated with the #1 overall pick because they're the best prospects at a premium position: pass-rusher/EDGE. Don't let that fool you. These guys are not the caliber of prospects that should go first-overall. Hutchinson is a Great Value Joey Bosa (which would be good, but not mind-blowing). Kayvon Thibodeaux is very much like Jadeveon Clowney 2.0. A player with a very high ceiling, but seems to be the type of personality that might prevent him from reaching it fully. Travon Walker is all athletic upside, but he lacks the track record that suggests he's a surefire dynamo as a pass-rusher. These guys are good, and they play a very valuable position. That doesn't mean they're worthy top-five picks.

There Is a LOT of Depth In This Draft

This ties in well with my point above, as I think there are numerous edge rushers that could offer similar upside to the top-billed prospects, but they will be draft several picks later. If you are drafting for an NFL team, your goal should be to acquire the most talent for the team that you possibly can in the draft. One way to do that is to trade back in a draft that has a lot of depth, but minimal top-tier talent. That is exactly what this draft is. While uninspiring at the very top, the first three-to-four rounds will be littered with players that have comparable (not identical, but close enough) upside to the players taken in the first round. In order to take advantage of this, teams would be wise to trade back and acquire numerous second or third round picks instead of holding onto their first-rounders.

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And that's it! You wouldn't think I would have to tell NFL GMs how to approach one of the most important aspects of their jobs, but here we are. Hopefully teams are savvy enough to realize the value in trading down, and please feel free to jeer with me at literally any team that is foolish enough to trade up in this draft. It's not a bad draft. It's just a bad draft to be picking early. Maybe that's why the Bears gave up their first rounder last year...........

Or maybe they're just dumb.

Just kidding. Justin Fields is winning NFL MVP this year.