2023 NFL Draft Takes: Top Five LBs

These short posts over the course of the week leading up to Thursday night will detail my personal opinions on how the NFL should approach this draft class. I'll try to give some hard-core analysis for some guys, but a lot of this is going to be gut-instinct, armchair-quarterback musings. All correct opinions come directly from me and me alone. All incorrect opinions may be roasted appropriately at a later date.

LB1: Jack Campbell, Iowa

He would have been a top-10 pick 15 years ago, but he's the best LB in this class by far. He's enormous for his position (6'5"), and he's got the athleticism and movement skills that would stand out in a much smaller player. There might not be a better culture guy in the draft, and I will also mention that he's got a list of production and accolades that few in the draft class can rival, and no other LB can even dream of. The best Iowa LB in my lifetime (yes, I said it) will be a multi-time Pro-Bowler at worst, and could leave a legacy as one of the iconic defenders of his era if he hits his ceiling.

LB2: Jack Campbell, University of Iowa

I simply can't find anyone else in this draft class that deserves this spot more than Campbell

LB3: Jack Campbell (IR), Iowa

This spot is reserved for what I would grade Jack Campbell at if you guaranteed to me that he has injury problems throughout his entire career.

LB4: Jack Campbell's Dog, Somewhere In Iowa

I don't even know if he has a dog. If he does, I'd have it here just simply due to osmosis from just being around the GOAT LB, Captain Jack.

LB5: High-School Senior Jack Campbell: Cedar Falls, Iowa

You can ask people around me, but I was absolutely convinced Jack Campbell was going to be a superstar at Iowa after watching his Hudl highlight film from his senior year. I hate it when I'm so right. That version of Campbell is worth a mid-round look in this draft, IMO.

2023 NFL Draft Takes: Top Five DL

These short posts over the course of the week leading up to Thursday night will detail my personal opinions on how the NFL should approach this draft class. I'll try to give some hard-core analysis for some guys, but a lot of this is going to be gut-instinct, armchair-quarterback musings. All correct opinions come directly from me and me alone. All incorrect opinions may be roasted appropriately at a later date.

DL1: Will Anderson, Alabama

This is a tough call, but when you're splitting hairs between prospects, I tend to distill everything to "ceiling/floor" comparisons. I think Will Anderson has a relatively elite floor as a draft prospect. At the very least, I anticipate Anderson will be a plus-value EDGE defender that dominates in the run game with enough pass-rush acumen to routinely put out 6-8 sacks per season. Essentially, his floor is Jadeveon Clowney's NFL career (which was underwhelming, but not as bad as some people might think). His ceiling is Von Miller with more substantial punch as a run defender. That's an elite floor and an elite ceiling. Picking Anderson is a safe pick without sacrificing elite upside. I would say he's less likely to hit an elite ceiling than prior top EDGE prospects (the Bosa brothers, Myles Garrett, etc.), but all I've heard is that his work ethic stands out, so I wouldn't bet against him carving out a supremely productive career.

DL2: Tyree Wilson, Texas Tech

Catch him on the right day, and he looks like a generational prospect at defensive end (and I think "generational" is the most overused term in modern sports). He's big (6'6", 271 pounds), long (arm length of nearly three feet), and possesses a twitchiness (NFL draft analysts' favorite term) on tape that a man his size simply should not have. Despite his impressive overall athleticism, his film lacks evidence of elite flexibility that game-wrecking EDGE defenders typically bring to the table, and he didn't pan out as a productive player in college until his redshirt senior season at Texas Tech (after transferring from Texas A&M two years prior). Still, he's a player I've fallen in love with over the course of this year as I've watched him, and I think he has inside-out versatility with the upside to mimic the impact of a longer Myles Garrett despite possessing a different athletic profile (though I doubt he has the helmet-swinging upside that Garrett has displayed). I think his likely upside is higher than Anderson's, but I could see a world where he flames out and is a journeyman defended for several years.

DL3: Jalen Carter, Georgia

If he gets his head on straight, he's the top prospect in this draft. I'm just really unsure that he ultimately will. His upside is still too high to drop him further down this list for me.

DL4: Lukas Van Ness, Iowa

Saying "He didn't even start at Iowa" when talking about Van Ness is a great way to show me that you just don't pay that much attention to the situations that college football players come from. LVN played starter-level snaps on Iowa's defensive line that heavily rotates players throughout a game. From the moment he stepped on the field as a redshirt freshman, he looked different than the other players on a loaded defense, and his production was eye-catching from the get-go. When he gets drafted, I guarantee you will hear the word "power" when the analysts try to break down his game. That's because he's perhaps the most powerful EDGE in this draft class who has flashed that ability against the best offensive linemen in the country. His power is undeniable, but his testing at the combine opened my eyes to type of upside we could really be looking at with him. In short, he was overall faster, bigger, longer, and more explosive than Nick Bosa (who some people have compared his ceiling to). He ran a faster 40 than Anderson despite weighing 20 pounds more than him, and looked extremely fluid in the on-field position drills. He's raw, and he'll need to refine his technique quite a bit at the professional level if he wants to maximize his potential. If he does, his ceiling is to be the best defensive player in the NFL. That's a big projection, and I wouldn't bet on that being the case for sure, but he's got the potential to be that dude. His floor is probably lower than that of the above picks, and that's why he's here. However, if the Bears traded down and got him in the mid-1st, their draft would already get an A+ from me.

DL5: Myles Murphy, Clemson

He's similar in a lot of ways to Van Ness from a body-type and production standpoint. They're pretty comparable from an athletic testing profile from the data they've given during this draft cycle. His ceiling is limited because he is just not nearly as powerful as Van Ness. And nowhere near as hot.

Dr. Commish's Final Forecast: 2023 NFL Draft Edition

By Josh Hunter

What is a Final Forecast?

Weather can be a tricky thing to understand, especially here in the Midwest. Two weeks ago, the University of Iowa's student body tasted all four seasons in a span of four days, starting with summer, followed by spring, then fall, and lastly winter. As unbelievable as that sounds, weather experts were able to predict that weather pattern with a good deal of accuracy after studying the atmosphere and surrounding weather. How do I know this? Well, my phone showed me a weather forecast from the experts, and that forecast ended up coming true.

The NFL Draft is even more unpredictable, and so I, the draft "expert" (term used very loosely), have pieced together a forecast for some of the shenanigans set to go down tomorrow night and throughout the weekend. Don't be shocked if nothing in this forecast happens; every pre-draft prediction is ultimately a shot in the dark, and hitting on one is still highly unlikely even when your eyes adjust, On the other hand, if anything in here ends up happening, remember where you heard it first.

Day 1: Round 1

Round 1 Shockers

1. Georgia DL Jalen Carter falls to #9 overall.

On the field, Jalen Carter may be the best prospect in the entire draft class. However, after being arrested in April and showing up to his pro day overweight and out-of-shape, questions have risen about his character and dedication to the game. If teams aren't willing to take a risk on him, he could slide down in the draft significantly. If he falls to the 9th selection, Chicago must capitalize on his availability by either drafting him or finding a trade partner down the board willing to pay a premium price to move up and take him.

2. The Eagles pass on Texas HB Bijan Robinson to protect the NFL's highest-paid player.

This may be the least shocking of the group, knowing GM Howie Roseman's tendency to make trench picks in the first round and Philadelphia's need at right guard, but I'd still be at least a little surprised. Bijan Robinson is a special talent, and would be an awesome addition to an already phenomenal offense. But the running back class is deep this year, and even though none of the other players at the position impact the game quite like Robinson does at this point, the Eagles can afford to wait to address Jalen Hurts' running mate and land a top-tier talent on the offensive line in Northwestern OL Peter Skoronski.

3. Georgia LB Nolan Smith falls to the back end of the first round.

This wouldn't really be that surprising to me, despite all the hype surrounding Smith as an athlete and a leader. He's crazy fast, but he's undersized for an edge rusher, and hasn't produced at a high level yet. Because of this, I have a feeling that a lot of teams will actually view him as more of a linebacker at the next level, which could tank his draft stock. I still can't see him falling out of the first round due to his athletic testing, but there's a very real chance he could fall to the Eagles' second pick (#30 overall).

4. D.J. Turner is the 4th defensive back taken in the draft.

Speed kills, and D.J. Turner has a lot of it. Throughout the draft process, most people (including me) have viewed Turner as a Day 2 prospect with solid upside, but I'm confident that one of the corner-needy teams in the middle of the first round will take a swing on the fastest player in the draft ahead of Maryland's Deonte Banks or Penn State's Joey Porter Jr.

5. The Vikings trade up into the top 10 for a sliding quarterback.

The Kirk Cousins era may not be quite over in Minneapolis, but the Vikings will have to move on from him sometime soon. If you're reading this, don't be surprised when Goodell strolls out onto the stage in Kansas City to announce a massive trade-up from 23.

Players to Watch

1. Lukas Van Ness - EDGE, Iowa

Theme song: Die A Happy Man - Thomas Rhett

Ideal team: Chicago Bears after a second trade-back

Nightmare scenario: Green Bay Packers

Player comp: Hot J.J. Watt

2. Bryan Bresee - DL, Clemson

Theme song: Fight Song - Rachel Platten

Ideal team: New Orleans Saints

Nightmare scenario: LA Rams in Round 2

Player comp: Brent Urban floor, Chris Jones ceiling

3. Hendon Hooker - QB, Tennessee

Theme song: Truth Hurts - Lizzo

Ideal team: New man on the Minnesota Vikings

Nightmare scenario: Miami Dolphins

Player comp: Jacoby Brissett

Top 3 Picks to Avoid (and why the team will absolutely fall for them)

1. QB Will Levis to the Panthers at #1

Why to avoid him: Not a finished product, couldn't beat Sean Clifford for the Penn State QB job, poor pocket awareness.

Why they'll take him: He's got the size and physical tools to become an awesome QB in a few years.

2. RT Darnell Wright to the Bears at #9

Why to avoid him: Nothing about him says "Top 20 value player" from what I've seen; below-ideal run blocker and struggles at left tackle.

Why they'll take him: He didn't allow a sack last year, and (according to Wright) GM Ryan Poles really likes him as a person.

3. WR Quentin Johnston to the Texans at #12

Why to avoid him: Doesn't know how to use his size, concentration drop issues, flashes of Kevin White.

Why they'll take him: He's long and fast.

Day 2: Rounds 2-3

Players to Watch

1. Cody Mauch - OL, North Dakota State

Theme song: Big Green Tractor - Jason Aldean

Projected landing spot: Green Bay Packers

2. Jack Campbell - LB, Iowa

Theme song: Back in Black - AC/DC

Projected landing spot: Pittsburgh Steelers

3. Cam Smith - CB, South Carolina

Theme song: STAY - The Kid LAROI & Justin Bieber

Projected landing spot: Carolina Panthers

4. Chase Brown - HB, Illinois

Theme song: Hey Brother - Avicii

Projected landing spot: San Francisco 49ers

5. Zach Harrison - EDGE, Ohio State

Theme song: Monster - Skillet

Projected landing spot: Kansas City Chiefs

Day 2 MVPs

Offense: Jahmyr Gibbs - HB, Alabama

Defense: Felix Anudike-Uzomah - EDGE, Kansas State

Day 3: Rounds 4-7

The Best of the Rest (and projected landing spots)

1. Moro Ojomo - DL, Texas (CHI)

2. Sidy Sow - OL, Eastern Michigan (SEA)

3. Zack Kuntz - TE, Old Dominion (JAX)

4. DeWayne McBride - HB, Alabama-Birmingham (CIN)

5. Byron Young - EDGE, Tennessee (HOU)

6. Riley Moss - CB, Iowa (DEN)

7. SirVocea Dennis - LB, Pittsburgh (PHI)

8. Michael Wilson - WR, Stanford (ATL)

9. Dorian Thompson-Robinson - QB, Cal-Los Angeles (GB)

10. Olusegun Oluwatimi - OL, Michigan (NYG)