Cogito Ergo Cogito's 2021-22 NBA Primer
- Jake Hunter
- Oct 19, 2021
- 11 min read
It's Opening Night in the NBA, so I'm setting out to do something I hope is fairly synonymous with this blog as a whole in the coming years: Doing all the extra research so you don't have to. In this article, I'll do my best to summarize the key storylines and characters heading into the NBA's historic 75th season so you can at least give the impression that you're a moderately-informed NBA fan in case of emergency (for example: You run into someone on the street and he tells you he'll steal all your money unless you can tell him which city hates Ben Simmons the most). This article is a service to you, so the least you can do is read it, like it, and share it with all your friends. I'm trying to save lives here.
Also, the NBA needs more fans, so maybe this will sway some of you into watching 2 NBA games this year instead of zero.
Major Storylines Heading Into the Season
The Ben Simmons Saga
The Philadelphia 76ers star has been perhaps the major topic of discussion in the league ever since a horrific showing in the Eastern Conference Semi-Finals last season that culminated in co-star Joel Embiid (a much better player than Simmons) indirectly sending some criticisms toward Simmons' play and attitude in the offseason. Simmons has indicated rather strongly that he wants out of Philadelphia, and Sixers fans seem wholeheartedly on board with that idea as well.
Complicating things is the fact that Simmons' trade value has diminished considerably due to his horrid playoff performance, making him a much more difficult asset for Philadelphia to move for a favorable return. Simmons is also represented by Klutch Sports, a sports agency that holds an unrivaled amount of power in the league due in large part to its strong connection with LeBron James. Klutch has indicated that it wants Simmons out of Philly, but Philly GM Darryl Morey is (justifiably) insistent on receiving a fair return in any trade that might move Simmons elsewhere.
The situation has boiled over into a seemingly unsolvable problem leading into the season, raising a few major questions as the Sixers begin actually playing games: Is Simmons so adamant about leaving Philadelphia that he's willing to lose money by sitting out? How much demand is there for a damaged, but undeniably talented young player (Simmons is a mere 25 years old)? Will the resolution of this situation substantially reframe player-team negotiations for the foreseeable future?
When the situation inevitably settles, Simmons will likely be on a new team and the Sixers will undoubtedly look much different as a team than last year's regular season 1st-place team in the Eastern Conference. Will it be for better or for worse for both parties?
Is the End Nearing for LeBron?
Despite my dislike of "The King", I'll wholeheartedly admit that LeBron James has easily had one of the greatest careers in NBA History. One of the core features of James' greatness throughout the years has been an unparalleled record of durability and longevity. That almost immortal resilience seems to finally be breaking down (to some degree) as two of the last seasons have concluded with LeBron significantly hampered by some form of injury (groin in 2019, ankle in 2021). While he is still playing at an elite level when healthy, questions must be asked about the likelihood that James can maintain a high enough level of play for four playoff rounds at this stage in his career.
The Lakers have pushed in the chips for a run at the 2022 title with an extremely aggressive offseason. For their moves to be worth it, they'll need LeBron to be at his best in the playoffs. Last year's first-round exit should be firmly in the rearview mirror, but it might be a harbinger of the things to come, signaling that LeBron's time at the top of the sport is coming to its inevitable end. I know better than to bet against LeBron, but the ball is still in his court to prove if he's still the same dominant force he's been for so long.
COVID Vaccine Discourse
For the record, I actually don't think this storyline will be particularly relevant more than a month from now, but it's still one of the hot-button topics facing the league in the moment. Several players including stars Kyrie Irving and Bradley Beal have expressed hesitancy regarding their willingness to receive the vaccine before the start of the season, and their decision on the matter may cause their availability for certain games to be put into question. There are varying guidelines from city-to-city across the league ranging from more aggressive (New York City) to more relaxed (Dallas, etc.), and a player's vaccination status may affect whether or not they would be able to play in a certain city on a given night.
Regardless of one's opinion on the matter (and there are many unique opinions even amongst the players of the league), the situation is worth monitoring from a competitive standpoint. The Brooklyn Nets' front office has already indicated that they are treating Irving's situation with an "all-or-none" perspective. Either Irving receives the vaccine and remains available for the team regardless of the city they play in, or he won't be with the team at all.
I think the issue will resolve with the players getting the shot, but in the unlikely event that certain players hold out, the whole season could be turned upside down as key players miss extended time.
Who Is the King of the NBA Going Forward?
As alluded to above, LeBron's time as the king of the league is coming to a close. In fact, it may already be over.
Milwaukee Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo elevated his standing in the league tremendously by carrying his team to the NBA title last season and putting together one of the more dominant individual playoff runs in recent memory.
Kevin Durant was about the width of a magazine from single-handedly toppling Antetokounmpo's Bucks in the Eastern Conference Semifinals last year. Worries about the lingering effects of an Achilles tear in 2018 are long gone, and many experts waffle between Durant and Giannis as the single best players in the league at the moment.
Stephen Curry looked to be back in MVP form last season. Nikola Jokic actually won the award after a sensational season.
Beyond the names above, Luka Doncic remains a titanic talent that may be the only player that matches Giannis' combination of current dominance combined with a tantalizing future.
I think the phrase is overused, but there is more than just a kernel of truth to it: The NBA will be in good hands after LeBron is gone. In fact, it might not even be his league after this season.
The Top Contenders For the Championship
The Brooklyn Nets
One of the more imposing rosters in league history, the Nets come into the 2021-22 season as clear title contenders. You could easily make the case that they should be defending a title from last season as well. Headed up by a lethal scoring trio of Kevin Durant, James Harden, and Kyrie Irving, the Nets boast a tremendous amount of depth that make them an almost fool-proof choice to reach (and win) the NBA Finals this year.
With the addition of Patty Mills and the return of a vast majority of their most impactful rotational players from last season, this team's floor looks like the Eastern Conference Finals. Irving's availability and a history of injury problems plaguing the core three stars of this team present some cause for concern, but let's be honest. They almost beat the defending champions (Milwaukee) with about 1.3 superstars last season. This year, they should have all three and a significantly stronger roster around them.
The Nets are the clear favorites and they should be.
The Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers were extremely active in the offseason, and it just might result in their second title in three seasons. It might.
Los Angeles bought high on LeBron's good friend and former MVP Russell Westbrook in one of the blockbuster moves this past summer, an extremely polarizing move amongst most NBA experts. Westbrook undeniably brings an energy and athleticism that could supplement LeBron and co-star Anthony Davis' abilities well by forming an ever-desirable "Big 3", but Westbrook's ball-dominant style may cause friction on the court when paired alongside a gravitational player like LeBron James.
Regardless, the Lakers have LeBron, and an old-but-experienced rest of the roster might be plenty to catapult L.A. back into title contention. I'm personally skeptical of the efficacy of lots of the moves they made (this team would have been unbelievable in 2013, but this is 2021), but they have the top-end talent to put them in position for LeBron's fifth ring. They just need to stay healthy.
The Milwaukee Bucks
They're the defending champs, and they're bringing almost the entire team back. Giannis has a chance to stake his claim as the next in line to dominate the NBA for the next decade, and performances like his 2021 playoff run often lead to elite players reaching an entirely new level of sustained excellence going forward.
The reasons why they're slotted behind the Nets when it comes to Eastern Conference dominance seem pretty straightforward, but don't count the Bucks out by any means. Jrue Holiday seemed to take a leap at the Olympics following the NBA Finals last summer, and Khris Middleton made the types of clutch shots that suggest he's ready to dominate his role as a second fiddle to Giannis.
This team has a taste of life as champions, and they've got the talent to suggest that they won't give their throne up without a fight.
The Best of the Rest
These teams aren't the favorites by any means, but if the championship doesn't belong to one of the teams listed above, it will absolutely be won by one of the following teams.
The Phoenix Suns
Last year's Finals runner-up. The crazy thing is that the Suns might have been a year ahead of schedule reaching the championship round last season. With an exciting, improving young core of Devin Booker, Deandre Ayton, and Mikal Bridges orchestrated by the ever-steady Chris Paul, the Suns could absolutely return to the Finals this year.
The Golden State Warriors
Steph Curry is playing game-changing basketball, and Klay Thompson is coming back. The Warriors somewhat overachieved last season by making the play-in tournament, and if the younger contributors on the roster (James Wiseman, Jordan Poole, etc.) can markedly improve, this team will be a threat. If they get substantial contribution from rookies Jonathan Kuminga and Moses Moody, this team could win a title.
The Denver Nuggets
Jamal Murray's ACL injury last season spoiled what could have been a banner postseason in Denver. Defending MVP Nikola Jokic should be sufficient to keep Denver afloat before Murray returns around the second half of this season, and Michael Porter Jr. has ample opportunity to become a star in the meantime. If it all breaks right, the Nuggets winning a title shouldn't surprise anyone.
The Dallas Mavericks
This team consists almost entirely of Luka Doncic and role players. If Kristaps Porzingis added anything on a consistent level, Doncic is good enough to essentially single-handedly beat any team in a playoff series.
The Utah Jazz
They had an incredible opportunity in last year's playoffs when Kawhi Leonard went down in the Western Conference Semifinals, and they bungled it in spectacular fashion. This team, led by Donovan Mitchell, is built to excel in the regular season. They'll likely enter the playoffs with one of the three best records in the conference. Maybe this year they'll live up to their playoff seed.
The Los Angeles Clippers
If they can make the playoffs, I believe that the Clippers are a top-3 threat to come out of the Western conference. That'll be easier said than done, as Kawhi Leonard's torn ACL will have him missing most, if not all, of the regular season. Paul George was tremendous for much of the playoffs last season, and the Clippers will need him to perform at that level to make this season worthwhile. He just needs to get them to the postseason, and Kawhi can do the rest.
The Miami Heat
A frisky, but disappointing team last season following a Finals run in the bubble the year before, the Heat added perhaps the ideal player for their style of play this offseason in former Toronto guard Kyle Lowry. Lowry's grit combined with Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo will make the Heat an excruciating team to play night in and night out. I'm more skeptical about their championship odds than most others, but I have to acknowledge the threat that they are.
The Boston Celtics
They were bad last season, and their struggles led to significant shakeup throughout the front office of the franchise this offseason. They have two franchise cornerstones in Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, but I question whether they have the firepower and grit to challenge the top-tier teams in the East.
The Atlanta Hawks
A surprising run in the 2021 playoffs revealed what NBA experts and fans should have realized before: The Hawks have a ton of talent on their roster. Trae Young is the focal point, but the amount of explosive wing players (Bogdan Bogdanovic, Cam Reddish, Deandre Hunter, Kevin Huerter) and rangy big men (Clint Capela, Onyeka Okongwu) positioned around Young make this team as scary as they are exciting. Rookie Jalen Johnson looks better-than-advertised, and his additional emergence would only add to a roster that is a notch below the top 2 East teams (Bucks and Nets), but as good as any others.
The Philadelphia 76ers
The Ben Simmons saga is looming, but this is still a strong team regardless of how that problem sorts itself out. Joel Embiid is one of the best players in the league when healthy. If the 76ers can add an impact perimeter player in a deal for Simmons, this team would be in the conversation with the Nets and Bucks. As it stands now, they are still a good team that could make the conference finals with a favorable draw. It all comes down to what happens with Simmons.
The Chicago Bulls
I alluded to this team's destiny in an earlier article, but for the sake of fairness, I think the Bulls are a much improved roster that has a high ceiling and low floor. I could squint and see this team in the Eastern Conference Finals and threatening for a spot in the Finals. I could also see them missing the playoffs altogether. The addition of Lonzo Ball and DeMar DeRozan make this an undoubtedly more talented team, but time will tell if their impact extends to the win column.
Players to Watch
Zion Williamson
He's the first on the list because his future is as uncertain as anyone with his talent. The New Orleans Pelicans front office has handled Zion about as poorly as a franchise could, and he clearly is planting the seeds for an exit to a better team as soon as possible. Williamson is a spectacular talent, but his body composition and injury history raise some concerns. The intrigue with Zion is primarily centered around his off-court situation. When he's on the court, he's an All-Pro player.
Damian Lillard
Similar to Zion, Lillard's intrigue revolves around his off-court situation in Portland. The Blazers have been moderately competitive, but Lillard deserves to be playing for championships each year. If this season goes sideways, Lillard may look to a larger market (i.e., New York).
LeBron James
See what I wrote above. This is a pivotal season for the way we look at LeBron's place in the league going forward.
James Harden
He had an abominable ending to his time in Houston, but he played exceptionally well once he got settled in Brooklyn. He was significantly hampered at the end of the playoff series against Milwaukee, and they likely win the title if he's even 80% throughout the postseason. I think he'll be an MVP contender this year as he re-establishes himself as one of the truly elite players in the league.
Paul George
I talked about it briefly above, but Paul George can be the difference between a potential title run and missing the playoffs entirely for the Clippers. He was excellent last year after Kawhi went down, and Clippers fans can only hope he can reprise that role long enough to stem the tide until Kawhi is back.
Luka Doncic
He's excellent, and he's a must-watch player that will only get better this year.
Giannis Antetokounmpo
He's also excellent, and he's a must-watch player that will only get better this year.
Chris Paul
Can he do it again? Paul led the Suns to the Finals after many in league circles thought his career was coming to a close. He's beaten Father Time for a couple years, now, but will it finally catch up to him? If not, the Suns should be in for another special season.
Ja Morant
He's my pick to jump from "really good" to "great" player this year. Morant has his limitations as a player, but he's one of the most exciting young talents in the league. He showed out on the biggest stages last year, and that tends to precede a massive jump as a player. I think Morant will be talked about as a franchise centerpiece after this season.
Cade Cunningham/Evan Mobley/Jalen Suggs/Jalen Green
This could really be any rookie, but these four are the ones who could make the biggest splashes in their first years on bad teams. I've written about each of them before, but my big suggestion for this year is to focus on Jalen Green on the Rockets. He's a special talent and a highlight-reel player.
Final Predictions/Thoughts
I personally would take stock in the Nets. Despite some of the seemingly flammable factors around the team, they are far-and-away the most talented squad in the league.
LeBron isn't the player he once was (he's still good, though), and I don't think the Lakers' offseason moves will live up to the ceiling some might believe they have.
My Bulls should be fun to watch. Or they could be awful. I'm not a time-traveler.
Remember that Philadelphia hates Ben Simmons.
Enjoy this season!
You forgot to add (Hairline, 2007-present) in Lebron's list of