Fantasy Football Position Breakdown: Tight Ends

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In this final edition of "Fantasy Football Position Breakdown" for the 2021 fantasy football season, I am taking a look at the the Tight Ends.

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The Consensus Top 15 Players

This consensus Top 15 was assembled by aggregating the average ranking of the players across numerous major fantasy football outlets.

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1. Travis Kelce

2. Darren Waller

3. George Kittle

4. Mark Andrews

5. TJ Hockenson

6. Kyle Pitts

7. Dallas Goedert

8. Noah Fant

9. Logan Thomas

10. Robert Tonyan

11. Mike Gesicki

12. Irv Smith

13. Tyler Higbee

14. Jonnu Smith

15. Rob Gronkowski

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Position Breakdown

Just a few thoughts as I dove into the position rankings.

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Travis Kelce is far and away the #1 choice here. I don't personally think he's the best tight end in the league, but his tremendous pass-catching skills combined with his role in the Chiefs' dynamic passing attack give him an immense floor with an astronomic ceiling. He's always Patrick Mahomes' first choice for checkdown throws and red zone targets, giving him a significant share of extra receptions and touchdowns throughout the season. It's possible that someone else could out-produce him, but I wouldn't bet on it. He's the clear #1.

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I don't understand why Mark Andrew and Kyle Pitts are as high as they each are. Andrews is admittedly the top target for Lamar Jackson, but I think his huge 2019-20 season is the outlier as opposed to last year's disappointing campaign. The Ravens' passing attack is just too weak to count on Andrews producing at a high level in my opinion. With Pitts, my thoughts are largely driven by the history of rookie tight ends in the league struggling in their first year. He's a rare talent at the position, so I understand the impulse to rank him where he is, but I'm skeptical that he'll be able to perform at such a high level with an aging Matt Ryan throwing him the ball.

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There is a huge drop-off after the first three consensus players. I would consider drafting a tight end pretty early if it means that you get one of those top 3.

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Dallas Goedert is an impostor in the top 10.

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The value in this class is in that top 3, then there's a drop-off, then the value slowly tapers for the remainder of the top 15. Honestly, if you can't get Kittle, Waller, or Kelce, I would probably recommend that you start stocking up on other positions for a bit. Guys like Rob Gronkowski and Jonnu Smith will be solid if unspectacular options in later rounds.

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Stock Check

Evaluating which players are getting too much hype and which players might surprise a bit this year.

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Overvalued: Dallas Goedert and Mark Andrews

I already mentioned both of them above, but I just don't see these guys producing at the levels they're ranked at right now. Their quarterback play and overall offensive scheme will hold both of them back, and I think you'll get a lot of single digit performances from these two. Touchdowns are so important to both players' production, and their quarterbacks are too shaky throwing the ball to count on precision in the red zone.

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The Value Pick In the Top 15: Tyler Higbee

Much like Cooper Kupp, who I highlighted in my article yesterday, I think Higbee really sees an uptick in production with a competent QB slinging the ball around in LA. He's flashed productivity in the past, and I think coach Sean McVay's scheme will give Higbee plenty of cheap yards as defenses scramble to defend the wide receivers on the perimeter. There are a ton of options at this position that could yield solid value, but I feel the most confident about sustained production from Higbee.

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Tiers of Value

As I'm drafting this fall, this is the way I tend to think of the TEs worth drafting.

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"Can't-Miss Elite Player" Tier

This is a tier of one at this position, though I really like the other two guys in the top 3 as well. He would be a perfectly acceptable pick in the second or third round, which is rare at this position.

Travis Kelce

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"Probably Elite" Tier

These two guys are awesome, but they have some obstacles that Kelce doesn't have (primarily QB play). Still, they're the cream of the crop at this position and could challenge Kelce for TE1 in fantasy.

George Kittle

Darren Waller

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"Great Options Beyond the Best" Tier

These players could make a run at the top 3, but they're a few steps down in terms of their value because of either a sub-elite track record or disadvantaged roles in their offensive schemes.

TJ Hockenson

Tyler Higbee

Noah Fant

Robert Tonyan

Logan Thomas

Mark Andrews

Kyle Pitts

Whoever is featured between Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry

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"Filler Player" Tier

Players in this tier will have some solid games, but they will definitely have plenty of meh games. They probably won't be in the running for top 5, but possibly could sneak into the back end of the top 10. Ideally, you would have a guy above this tier as your starter.

Irv Smith

Mike Gesicki

Dallas Goedert

Evan Engram

Rob Gronkowski

OJ Howard

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"Barely Rosterable" Tier

Don't start these guys unless you have to. And don't even pick up anyone who would fall outside of this tier.

The second option between Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith

Cole Kmet

Eric Ebron

Austin Hooper

Jared Cook

Chris Herndon

Jack Doyle

Adam Trautman

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Final Advice Regarding This Position Group

Draft Kelce if he's available in the 4th round or later, and maybe pick him sooner. As soon as Kelce's gone (if you don't get him), be ready to nab Waller or Kittle unless you have a phenomenal guy at a more critical position (WR, QB, and RB are all more critical in my opinion). If those two are gone before you can get to them, be patient. There's quite a bit of parity beyond those three, and you'd be better off accumulating players from a deeper position (like RB or QB). You need to get one of the guys in my top two tiers, though, so don't get too lazy. You don't want to be significantly overmatched at the TE spot, because it's still a slot that has to be filled every week. Try to feel out your draft, but I would advise you to be proactive and not get caught sleeping on those top three guys. They truthfully will have a significant impact on breaking the tie between fairly even teams in your league.

Thanks for reading!

Fantasy Football Position Breakdown: Wide Receivers

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In this edition of "Fantasy Football Position Breakdown" I am taking a look at the the Wide Receivers.

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The Consensus Top 25 Players

This consensus Top 25 was assembled by aggregating the average ranking of the players across numerous major fantasy football outlets.

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1. Davante Adams

2. Tyreek Hill

3. Stefon Diggs

4. Calvin Ridley

5. Deandre Hopkins

6. D.K. Metcalf

7. A.J. Brown

8. Justin Jefferson

9. Terry McLaurin

10. Allen Robinson

11. Keenan Allen

12. CeeDee Lamb

13. Mike Evans

14. Amari Cooper

15. Robert Woods

16. Chris Godwin

17. Julio Jones

18. Adam Thielen

19. DJ Moore

20. Cooper Kupp

21. Tyler Lockett

22. Brandon Aiyuk

23. Kenny Golladay

24. Diontae Johnson

25. Tee Higgins

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Position Breakdown

Just a few thoughts as I dove into the position rankings.

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A couple things to consider when valuing wide receivers: Does your league use yardage bonuses and is it a PPR league? If your league uses yardage bonuses, you'll want to err on the side of players who tend to, unsurprisingly, have high yardage totals from year to year. If not, touchdowns are the gold mine. Certain receivers like Mike Evans and Adam Thielen are go-to targets for their teams in the red zone, and they'll be very likely to amass high TD totals. This opposes WRs like DJ Moore and Diontae Johnson (historically, at least), who accumulate plenty of yards in the intermediate portions of the field instead of stacking up high volumes of touchdowns. Additionally, if your league is a PPR league (most are), slot receivers have plenty of value. Keenan Allen is a tremendous volume receiver, so he might sneak up the rankings for you in a league like that compared to a different, non-PPR league.

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The group of players at this position that I feel good about is far and away the thinnest of the positions I've detailed so far. After the top three, I think there is a substantial drop in certainty regarding the players' projection. After writing the above point, however, I want to emphasize that these blue-chip receivers will gain tons of yards and touchdowns regardless. No matter your league, those players are the ones to target.

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Like rookie RBs, rookie WRs are typically a phenomenal investment in this day and age. Justin Jefferson was the prime example last season with an All-Pro type of performance, but the receiving classes have been very deep and productive for several years in a row now. While not featured highly in the preseason rankings because of lack of track record, there are plenty of solid rookie players to draft as depth pieces that may evolve into impact players by season's end. A few names I'm looking at: Ja'Marr Chase, Elijah Moore, and Amari Rodgers.

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Speaking of Justin Jefferson, I think he's due for a regression this year. I think he'll still be in the top-15 mix, but he's more of a focal point for defenses to plan for in the offseason, and his team's offensive scheme holds him back to a degree. I feel pretty confident that his numbers will be worse this year even if he improves as a player. He was just that special last year.

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Overall, I think the value of the WR class this year is extremely high in the top three and then fairly comparable for about 12-15 more players. Seriously. I don't think there's much of a gap between the consensus #4 (Calvin Ridley) and the consensus #14 (Amari Cooper) at all. After the top 18 or so, there's a drop off, and then beneath that is a lot of mystery.

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Stock Check

Evaluating which players are getting too much hype and which players might surprise a bit this year.

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Deandre Hopkins Is Perpetually Fooling Everyone

Deandre Hopkins has filled a very similar role on my fantasy teams to Joe Mixon over the years. He routinely disappoints me. In the NFL, he's often mentioned as the absolute best receiver based on skill and ability. This does not translate to fantasy football. I don't know if it's him or just the schemes that he has played in throughout his career, but he always appears much more appealing that his fantasy production would suggest. He sprinkles in just enough big games to keep him worth playing, but he puts up plenty of stinkers. I suppose that he theoretically has as good of a chance to be a top-5 fantasy producer as anyone below the top three players, but I don't mean that in a complimentary way and I don't think that's the type of player he'll ultimately be. A team with Deandre Hopkins as its #1 receiver will not win because of their WRs. They'll win in spite of them.

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The Value Pick In the Top 25: Cooper Kupp

Kupp has been phenomenal for multiple seasons with less-than-phenomenal quarterback play in Los Angeles. With Matthew Stafford joining the Rams this offseason, I think Kupp finally has a chance to emerge as a cornerstone receiver in the league with a higher volume of targets his way. Stafford allows the Rams to open the passing game up more than before, and I think this development with help Cooper Kupp's production more than teammate Robert Woods'.

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An Out-of-Left-Field Value Pick: Darnell Mooney

My Bears fandom is showing with some of these value pick suggestions, but it reflects a sense of optimism for the 2021-22 Bears offense compared to last year. This hinges on QB play (not generally assumed to be a strong point in Chicago), but if there is an upgrade to mid-level QB play this year, certain Bears playmakers will produce at a higher level than the current market has them projected at. Mooney was terrific last season and showed out as a legitimate option across from Allen Robinson. I think Mooney will produce at a WR3 or even WR2 level with an uptick in QB play, and his current valuation in the 50s for receivers is asinine. He was playing at that level last season in the worst football offense of all time (maybe a bit hyperbolic). I don't see him regressing this year, and the upside is enormous here.

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Tiers of Value

As I'm drafting this fall, this is the way I tend to think of the WRs worth drafting.

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"Can't-Miss Elite Player" Tier

These are the guys you use an early-round pick on and feel great about. They're basically foolproof as long as they don't get injured. Draft these guys with one of your first two picks if you have a chance, but if any of them drop to the 3rd, take them regardless of your previous picks. If you have 2 of these guys on your roster, you're approaching the driver's seat for the championship. I think they're that much better than the other options.

Davante Adams

Tyreek Hill

Stefon Diggs

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"Best of the Rest" Tier

The players in this tier are probably going to have some big games, but their consistency is what holds them back. However, they could easily be a major contributor to you winning your league while they seize the "best of the rest" throne.

A.J Brown

D.K Metcalf

Deandre Hopkins

Terry McLaurin

Allen Robinson

Calvin Ridley

Keenan Allen

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"Probably Quality Starters" Tier

I wouldn't bet on guys in this tier for sure being a featured aspect of your team, but they're high-upside performers who will likely be top-10 WRs if things break right for them.

Justin Jefferson

Amari Cooper

Cooper Kupp

CeeDee Lamb

Adam Thielen

Mike Evans

Julio Jones

Ja'Marr Chase

DJ Moore

Robert Woods

Tyler Lockett

Tee Higgins

Chris Godwin

Diontae Johnson

Michael Thomas

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"Filler Player" Tier

This group of guys wouldn't be ideal as a first or second WR, but can probably fill in periodically. Wide receivers are inherently volatile from a fantasy perspective, and these are the types of guys who could have a couple big games mixed in with a lot of meh.

Kenny Golladay

Brandon Aiyuk

Chase Claypool

Courtland Sutton

Odell Beckham Jr.

Michael Gallup

Will Fuller V

Curtis Samuel

Robby Anderson

Darnell Mooney

Cole Beasley

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"Barely Rosterable" Tier

Don't start these guys unless you have to. And don't even pick up anyone who would fall outside of this tier.

JuJu Smith-Schuster

Elijah Moore

Rashod Bateman

Brandin Cooks

Deebo Samuel

Tyler Boyd

DJ Chark Jr.

Marquise Brown

Antonio Brown

Jaylen Waddle

Devonta Smith

Nelson Agholor

Jarvis Landry

Jamison Crowder

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Final Advice Regarding This Position Group

Draft one of the top three early if you can. Like, as one of your first two picks. The dropoff is significant. If you can't feasibly land one of the big-time guys, feel free to be patient. Value is pretty constant for a while, and those next three or four picks after rounds 1 and 2 would be best spent grabbing high-quality players from a couple other positions. Make sure to have at least three guys in my top three tiers, and ideally more than that. This position really is one of the more random groups after the top tier each year, and you're better off betting on higher-certainty players from other positions than this one.

However, with high volatility comes high value in the later rounds. Be active on the waiver wire for the undrafted players throughout the season. You can easily steal a win or two along the way with a couple shrewd one-week pickups. Do your research about which guys are more specialized for your type of league, and you'll do just fine with this position. WR is an extremely malleable position, and you can easily piece together a competent WR unit after the draft if you make sure to stock up on high-value picks.

If you land one of the top three, you automatically have a strong group (barring injuries).

Good luck with this one!

Thanks for reading!

Fantasy Football Position Breakdown: Running Backs

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With the NFL season fast approaching, millions of football fans around the country are preparing to take part in the annual phenomenon of fantasy football. In an effort to better the lives of my readers, I have decided to publish a series of articles detailing my thoughts on where good value is at each position you might find yourself drafting from. You should be grateful that I'm doing this for free, as you're receiving high-level insight from a defending league champion from last season.

Whether fantasy football is a fun hobby or a constant lifestyle for you throughout this upcoming fall season, I hope you can take some of my opinions to heart for the betterment of your teams. In this edition, I'm taking a look at the position that is the most valuable of all positions in most standard leagues: Running. Back.

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The Consensus Top 25 Players

This consensus Top 25 was assembled by aggregating the average ranking of the players across numerous major fantasy football outlets.

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1. Christian McCaffrey

2. Dalvin Cook

3. Derrick Henry

4. Alvin Kamara

5. Saquon Barkley

6. Ezekiel Elliott

7. Jonathan Taylor

8. Nick Chubb

9. Aaron Jones

10. Austin Ekeler

11. Joe Mixon

12. Antonio Gibson

13. Najee Harris

14. Clyde Edward-Helaire

15. J.K. Dobbins

16. D'Andre Swift

17. David Montgomery

18. Chris Carson

19. Miles Sanders

20. Josh Jacobs

21. Darrell Henderson

22. Myles Gaskin

23. Kareem Hunt

24. Travis Etienne

25. Mike Davis

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Position Breakdown

Just a few thoughts as I dove into the position rankings.

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When drafting RBs (especially in the modern era), you have to evaluate how effective they are likely to be in the passing game in addition to running the ball. Especially in leagues that count receptions as points (PPR, which most leagues are), catches out of the backfield are an absolute treasure trove of points.

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There is phenomenal depth in the top 9, but a steep drop afterwards. Any of those top 9 could be an RB1-level producer, but make sure you get at least one of them in your draft.

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Rookie RBs are a phenomenal investment. Typically, they plug in and play about as well as any position during their rookie seasons, but they don't have the track record to warrant a high preseason grade on cheat sheets. The candidates referring to this year are: Najee Harris, Travis Etienne, and Javonte Williams. Do not draft them as your first RB, but absolutely jump at the opportunity to take them later in the draft as a high-upside pick.

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Miles Sanders and Josh Jacobs, both top-5 preseason RBs last year, are now barely in the top-20. I think both have great value from those spots.

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If your league incentivizes pure rushing yards and touchdowns and is not PPR, Derrick Henry and Dalvin Cook are the top two RBs in this class. If that's the case, drop Saquon out of your top 8 as well.

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Overall, I think the value of the RB class this year is concentrated in the first 9 and mid-late teens, meaning you should probably wait to grab another RB for a round or two the moment the top nine are picked. You'll get a similar or even higher-level player at RB while simultaneously shoring up another position or two.

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Stock Check

Evaluating which players are getting too much hype and which players might surprise a bit this year.

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The C.J. Spiller Honorary Award For A Top-5 RB That Is Terrible

Alvin Kamara

I had to pick someone. It's tempting to say any of Saquon, Dalvin Cook, or Christian McCaffrey (given injury histories), but I don't think it's fair to bet on injuries for this award. My rationale for choosing Kamara is centered around the Saints' questionable QB situation in addition to Sean Payton's pure obsession with Taysom Hill. No, Drew Brees wasn't a world-beater in his final season, but he was still a valuable cog in the machine that was the Saints' offense. I think Kamara's receiving numbers take a hit this year, and I wouldn't be shocked if his rushing yards scaled back as well. A subpar QB situation harms every aspect of an offense, and I don't think Sean Payton's going to be able to scheme up the same situations Kamara feasted on last season. I'm probably going to look stupid when Kamara inevitably gets some MVP buzz and leads the league in scrimmage yards. Oh well. He can put that MVP trophy beside this one on his mantel.

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Overvalued: Joe Mixon

I don't know how he does it, but Mixon finds his way into the top 10 preseason RBs every single year and continually underperforms for that role. He's a fine receiver, and he'll put together a couple solid games on the ground. He is not a player that a winning team would have as their #1 option. He's inconsistent and injury-prone on a team that will probably throw the ball a million times this year because they're losing so often. I'm only a little bitter because I have repeatedly deluded myself into taking him several years in a row after he falls a little bit in my leagues' drafts. No more, Joe. I've fallen for your tricks for the last time.

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The Value Pick of All Value Picks: David Montgomery

While he didn't exactly set the world on fire in his rookie season or the first half of his sophomore campaign, Montgomery flashed the potential Bears fans had dreamed about down the stretch run of the 2020-21 season. He accomplished this, mind you, with a depleted offensive line and a combination of Mitchell Trubisky and Nick Foles doing their absolute best to keep defenses completely focused on him coming out of the backfield. Though the QB situation is vastly improved, the O-line stability alone should make Montgomery at least a top-10 RB pick. He's shown enough as a receiver to make him a threat to be top-5. I think this is his breakout season, and you'd do well to capitalize on it as soon as possible. If you take him as the sixth or seventh RB in your draft, you won't be disappointed.

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An Out-of-Left-Field Value Pick: Trey Sermon

I ventured all the way outside the top 40 of most cheat sheets' RBs for this pick, but I absolutely love the upside Sermon has if he can seize a solid share of the 49ers' carries this season. Raheem Mostert is the home-run hitter in that backfield, but his frame limits him from being a true bell-cow. Enter the rookie Sermon, who is absolutely built to carry the ball 20+ times a game in his first year. If you're looking for a FLEX or backup RB, Sermon is absolutely worth giving a close look at.

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Tiers of Value

As I'm drafting this fall, this is the way I tend to think of the RBs worth drafting.

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"Can't-Miss Elite Player" Tier

These are the guys you use an early-round pick on and feel great about. They're basically foolproof as long as they don't get injured. Mortgage the farm to land these guys.

Christian McCaffrey

Dalvin Cook

Derrick Henry

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"Most Likely Elite" Tier

This tier of guys show significant promise with a couple question marks holding them back. Whether major injury concerns, off-field strife, or schematic challenges, these guys have a significant potential hurdle to overcome. Barring that, they could easily win your league for you and seize the RB1 throne.

Nick Chubb

Saquon Barkley

Alvin Kamara

David Montgomery

Aaron Jones

Jonathan Taylor

Ezekiel Elliott

Najee Harris

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"Quality Starters at the Very Least" Tier

I wouldn't bet on guys in this tier for sure being a featured aspect of your team, but they're high-floor performers who could be top-10 RBs if things break right for them.

Austin Ekeler

Antonio Gibson

J.K. Dobbins

Clyde Edwards-Helaire

D'Andre Swift

Joe Mixon

Miles Sanders

Josh Jacobs

Travis Etienne

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"Filler Player" Tier

This group of guys should not be your RB1, but can probably fill in as a second option on a bye week. Their ceiling is as a low-end second RB starter, but don't expect them to be that.

Chris Carson

Darrell Henderson

Myles Gaskin

Raheem Mostert

Chase Edmonds

Kareem Hunt

Damien Williams

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"Barely Rosterable" Tier

Don't start these guys unless you have to. And don't even pick up anyone who would fall outside of this tier.

Michael Carter

James Robinson

Javonte Williams

Zach Moss

David Johnson

Kenyan Drake

Leonard Fournette

Ronald Jones

Melvin Gordon

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Final Advice Regarding This Position Group

Draft an RB early, and try to get two in the top two tiers above if you can. If not, be patient and wait a few rounds. There is a lot of meh right after the top 10, but there are some potential gold mines in the late teens. Look for rookies with minimal competition in run-heavy offenses in the late rounds, and please don't take Joe Mixon as one of the top 10 RBs. It'll be better for your long-term health if you don't.